Why the Neutral Interest Rate Cannot Be Established

Most commentators are of the view that what prevents the attainment of price stability is the deviation of the policy interest rate, such as the federal funds rate, from the neutral interest rate, also known as the natural interest rate. The neutral interest rate, it is held, is the one that is consistent with stable prices and a balanced economy. According to this view, what is required is for Fed policymakers to successfully direct the federal funds rate toward the neutral interest rate.

The Cost of “Free”

Over the past weekend, from February 12 until February 15, Polymarket—in conjunction with the Food Bank For NYC—organized a pop-up grocery store in NYC that offered groceries entirely free of charge. Although the event was a short-term promotional stunt by Polymarket, it drew public praise from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has pitched similar interventionist ideas for grocery stores before.

Roger W. Garrison, R.I.P.

I am sorry to report that Roger W. Garrison passed away last month, at the age of 82. Roger was one of the foremost authorities on the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle, culminating in his great book Time and Money: The Macroeconomics of Capital Structure (Routledge (2001). His interest in Austrian macroeconomics and its superiority to Keynesian macroeconomics first became apparent in a paper he wrote in 1973 on the topic. After he sent a copy to Murray Rothbard, Joey Rothbard called him and invited him to visit Murray in New York.