The Fear of the Signal: Why the State Urgently Wants to Bind Prediction Markets

A predictive market like Polymarket or Kalshi is a financial exchange where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of real-world events. The price of a contract fluctuates between one cent and 99 cents based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the crowd’s collective probability estimate that the event will happen. If the event occurs, the contract settles at one dollar, allowing accurate forecasters to profit while aggregating decentralized information into a real-time predictive tool.

The Crisis at the Fed That No One Talks About

Of all the issues facing the Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, one that gets little public attention is the financial condition of the Fed itself.  In addition to its much-publicized roles of setting short-term interest rates, which may be headed back up, and creating inflation, which is already too high, the Fed is a giant financial enterprise.  It has total assets of $6.9 trillion as of March 31 combined with negative real capital. 

Rothbard on The Calculus of Consent

James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock’s The Calculus of Consent is usually considered a classic of free-market thought, but Rothbard was not an admirer of it. In a memo, now conveniently available in Rothbard’s Economic Controversies, prepared in 1960 for the Volker Fund on a manuscript version of the book, he raises some fundamental questions about it, and in this week’s article, I’d like to discuss some of these.