There was a recent discovery of hydrocarbons in offshore soil samples, suggesting that Jamaica may possess oil deposits. Yet, even with that promising sign, some people are now saying Jamaica should not even want to find oil. One economist even went as far as to say: “I hope oil is never discovered in Jamaica. Countries are more likely to get rich if they have to create things, like Singapore and South Korea, instead of just pulling stuff out of the ground, like Venezuela and Angola.” That’s a strong statement, but it shows a simple understanding of how countries develop, not a serious look at what could really happen for Jamaica.
There’s no doubt that places like Singapore and South Korea got rich by making things, exporting, educating their people, and improving technology, not by selling oil and gas. They invested in human capital, built excellent science and tech systems, created advanced factories, and had companies that could compete globally. Their success came from skills, hard work, and good systems. That much is true.
But that doesn’t mean countries with natural resources are doomed. Comparing Jamaica to Venezuela and Angola misses the real point. Their problems aren’t caused by oil itself. They’re caused by corruption, bad leadership, political unrest, and ineffective systems. Oil didn’t just create those problems out of nowhere, it made existing weaknesses in their systems much worse.
This is why the idea of a “resource curse” has been debated in economics for a long time. It’s not a definite rule. It’s more of a theory that depends on other factors. Many studies now suggest that outcomes depend less on having natural resources and more on how they are managed. Even general reviews of the research show there’s no agreement among academics that having a lot of resources automatically hurts growth.
The clearest proof against this pessimistic “resource curse” idea comes from successful countries that are rich in resources. Norway has huge oil wealth and is still one of the richest, best-run, and most equal societies in the world. Texas is a major energy player globally and also has one of the biggest and most active economies in the United States. Neither has fallen apart because of oil. Why? Strong systems, good management, deep financial markets, and a productive private sector.
Recent research supports this idea about institutions. A 2022 paper by Basma Selhami and Chunping Liu, called “Institutions and the Resource Curse in GCC Countries,” found that the quality of institutions is crucial in deciding whether natural resource wealth becomes a problem or a benefit. Their findings suggested that once institutions reach a certain level of quality, fuel wealth can actually help economic growth instead of hurting it.
Similarly, a 2021 study led by Alexander Cappelen and co-authors—based on a big experiment in Tanzania—found that people often expect finding natural resources to lead to more corruption. However, the researchers found no evidence that knowing this made people more corrupt, more dishonest, or less trusting. In other words, just expecting bad things didn’t make them happen.
That’s important for Jamaica. Too many discussions assume that if oil were found, the country would immediately fall into chaos. This isn’t real analysis. It’s what you might call “poverty thinking”—the belief that poor or middle-income countries just can’t handle opportunities. It assumes failure before anything even happens.
But Jamaica in 2026 isn’t the same Jamaica as in the 1980s. The country has gone through decades of economic improvements, strengthened financial oversight, managed its debt better, and even passed laws about fiscal responsibility to stop wasteful government spending. Today, Jamaica has more mature institutions, more experience with policies, and better access to global experts than it did in the past.
So, the right thing to do isn’t to be afraid of finding resources, it’s to get ready for it.
The Jamaican private sector should be offering more scholarships and technical training for people like mining engineers, petroleum engineers, geologists, environmental scientists, and data specialists. Entrepreneurs should be forming partnerships with foreign universities, research centers, and top-notch energy companies. Moreover, Jamaica should use any future money to improve ports, logistics, digital infrastructure, and research capabilities. Most importantly, it should keep investing in its people. Oil money, if it ever comes, should add to productivity, not take its place. Natural resources aren’t a substitute for education, innovation, or business. But they can help pay for them.
The real lesson from studying how countries develop isn’t that resources are bad. It’s that good systems matter. Where systems are weak, almost any source of wealth can be wasted. Where systems are strong, even unpredictable resources can be turned into lasting prosperity. Resource curse thinking, when treated as destiny, is garbage.
