The Fed

What keeps central bankers up at night?

On this episode of Power & Market, Ryan, Connor, and Tho break down a variety of headlines from the week, including bad inflation data, Trump's trip to China, Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, and the political theatre of Spencer Pratt and Zohran Mamdani.

Various inflation measures conceal more than they reveal, largely because they exclude measuring a large portion of high-inflation items.

A central banker has two lives: the first is spent studying neoclassical money supply mechanics; the second begins when they realize the real world doesn’t work that way. 

If executed perfectly, this swap allows the Fed to neutralize a shrinking money supply by swapping $2 trillion in mortgages for $2 trillion in government debt. 

If executed perfectly, this swap allows the Fed to neutralize a shrinking money supply by swapping $2 trillion in mortgages for $2 trillion in government debt. 

The aggregate net worth of all Americans is $170 trillion. Total government liabilities (on and off the books) are $160 trillion. Rick Rule: "I just don't understand how that great big large number goes away." Neither does the Fed.

Ryan McMaken, Jonathan Newman, and Joshua Mawhorter of the Mises Institute take a look at the politics of "fedspeak" and what officials at the Federal Reserve really mean when they say they're going to fix the Fed.

Mark Thornton argues we’re on the on-ramp to hyperinflation, and that the “gold didn’t spike on war” story misses the real driver: Fed policy, oil-driven CPI optics, and the coming scramble for liquidity.

Whether rates go up or down, neither outcome will be pleasant, leaving a bondholder caught between the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable.