Financial Markets

Thanks to the Fed's balance sheet and the Fed's policy on reverse repurchase agreements, it's hard to tell whether the Fed is being hawkish or dovish. 

As people from Generation X move toward retirement, they are starting to understand that Social Security really is in crisis and many public pension plans are underfunded. Furthermore, they find that inflation is eating through their retirement savings. This won‘t end well.

The Federal Reserve has welcomed the New Year by more of the same. As government spending continues to explode, the Fed enables it with its usual financial tricks.

GDP is a ridiculous way to gauge the strength of the economy. While prices on Wall Street remain robust, trouble lurks on Main Street.

Thorsten Polleit (TP): On November 5, 2024, Donald J. Trump was elected the new US president with a landslide victory.

On New Year’s Eve 1974, President Gerald Ford snuck in an executive order legalizing private gold ownership, revoking FDR’s previous policies banning gold “hoarding.”

President-Elect Trump has been threatening tariffs against BRICS countries unless they abandon their plans to abandon the US dollar. While Trump may come off as being "tough" in his negotiations, he cannot bluster his way to a stronger dollar, thanks to reckless monetary policies.

Commercial real estate in the US faces major problems despite efforts by the Federal Reserve System to prop it up. Bonds used to finance commercial real estate markets are being hit especially hard, and there is no relief in sight.

Thanks to the Fed's balance sheet and the Fed's policy on reverse repurchase agreements, it's hard to tell whether the Fed is being hawkish or dovish. 

For nearly 30 years, the Fed has pursued an easy-money policy that has made the economy increasingly dependent upon the next round of “stimulus.” Reversing that policy will mean, at least in the short run, a stiff recession before the economy rebounds, which is a non-starter today.