The “no hire, no-fire” job market continues. While we’re not yet seeing a trend toward widespread layoffs, it is increasingly difficult to get hired. As we saw earlier this month here in Power&Market, hires are becoming increasingly rare. And, while new layoffs may be moving sideways—and not swiftly rising—the number of people who remain unemployed for a significant period after a layoff is rising.
For example, according to new unemployment numbers released yesterday by the BLS, “continuing claims” for unemployment insurance hit another new cycle high during the week of July 5. Total continuing unemployment claims reached 1,956,000 the week of July 5, up from 1,954,000 the week before.
The four-week moving average shows a clear upward trend:
The BLS shows a decline in new unemployment claims. But, the total number of workers who remain unemployed continues to inch upward. While there is no large surge in layoffs, the number of new hires remains muted. With 1.95 million workers continuing on the unemployment rolls, the total is at the highest since the covid panic. If we exclude the covid period, we’re looking at the highest since March 2018, which was 381 months ago.
Greg Robb at MarketWire reported Thursday on this “no-hire, no fire” economy:
Continuing claims were at the highest level since November 2021, a sign that workers are having trouble finding new positions after they are laid off...
The four-week moving average of these so-called continuing claims was 1.957 million, the highest level since November 2021. That is a sign that workers are having trouble finding new positions after they are laid off.
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Big picture: Analysts said the decline in claims this week was partly caused by quirks in the data, as the model was looking for shutdowns in the automobile sector. There is a risk that claims will move higher over the summer, said James Knightley, an economist at ING.
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Looking through this noise, the data continue to tell a no-hire, no-fire story for the labor market, said Nancy Vanden Houten, senior economist at Oxford Economics.
