Money-supply growth rose year over year in June for the second month in a row. This is the first time the money supply has grown for two months in a row since October of 2022. The current trend in money-supply growth suggests a significant turnaround from more than a year of historically large contractions in the money supply that occurred throughout much of 2023 and 2024. As of June, the money supply appears to be, for now, in a period of stabilization.

A tautology is a law of logic, part of a law of logic, or a definition. Some people do not think that tautologies tell us anything useful, pointing out that if someone inquires about the weather, to be told, “Either it’s raining or it’s not raining,” is not very helpful.

Luke Gromen told Dale Pinkert on the Forex Analytics F.A.C.E. Show July 22nd that the U.S. went to China last fall and asked the Chinese to strengthen the yuan. The Chinese said if the United States wants a weaker dollar they need to let it go versus gold, implying that the gold market is influenced by the government’s hand.

Many commentators consider the spread between the long-term interest rate and the short-term interest rate as an important indicator to establish the future course of economic activity. An increase in the spread is seen as pointing toward good economic times ahead. Conversely, a declining spread raises the likelihood of an economic recession.

Historically, in the U.S., the differential between the yield on the 10-year T-bill and the federal funds rate was leading the yearly growth rate of industrial production by 12 months (see Figure 1).

Wow, what a week Mises University 2024 was! I have been a Mises University faculty member for over 30 years, and this—the 38th year of Mises U—may have been the best! Students came from 12 countries, 29 states, and 69 colleges and universities, including Yale and Princeton. The faculty, always outstanding, was truly inspiring and the students responded with great enthusiasm and endless questions.

Former president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump loves tariffs. In his 2011 book Time to Get Tough: Making America #1 Again, Trump included as part of his five-part tax policy “a 20 percent tax for importing goods.” During his first campaign for president, he called for a 35 percent tariff on cars and trucks imported from a proposed new Ford plant in Mexico and a 45 percent tariff on all imported goods from China “if they don’t behave.” Mexico is our largest trading partner, while China is third, contributing about 12 percent of total U.S.

I frequently receive comments about the strength of the United States economy and the unfairness of perceiving things as less than stellar. Is it really the “strongest economy ever”? It’s evident that it’s far from being the “strongest economy ever.”

Historian Julian Zelizer writes that Watergate-style investigations are OK sometimes, but we shouldn’t go overboard in being mistrustful of the government. After all, “faith in government,” Zelizer writes, “is necessary for a healthy society.” As Rothbard notes below, the watergate scandal was an excellent event precisely because it undermined faith in government.

Today is the fiftieth anniversary of the resignation of President Richard Nixon, who later was pardoned of all Watergate crimes by President Gerald Ford. The Watergate break-in occurred at the Democratic National Committee headquarters office in June 1972 at the Watergate building in Washington, DC, during a presidential election year. The Nixon Administration exerted great effort to conceal its involvement in the break-in.