Business Cycles

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Is the Fed Flashing A Recession Sign?

Blog02/19/2016Mark Thornton

This little known chart is the Fed's attempt to anticipate a recession in the US economy. The reading from last November is only 3.84%, but that is higher than all but 3 months when a recession did not immediately proceed.

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Dark Clouds over Auburn

Booms and BustsThe FedBusiness CyclesCapital and Interest TheoryMoney and Banking

Blog02/15/2016Mark Thornton

I have lived in Auburn, Alabama, for more than three decades and have never seen a Super Sized Construction Crane. Last week, two were erected in the middle of town.

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Did the NY Fed Plagiarize Rothbard?

Booms and BustsBusiness Cycles

Blog02/11/2016Jonathan Newman

Rothbard's book is considered the standard on the subject of the 1819 crisis, yet the NY Fed authors seem reluctant to speak his name.

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Janet Yellen Strikes Downbeat Tone on Economy, Claims Fed Won't Go Negative

Booms and BustsThe FedBusiness Cycles

Blog02/10/2016Ryan McMaken

Even the Fed, which has for years been describing the economy as "expanding at a moderate pace," and which a few months back was saying it was "hawkish," has, through Janet Yellen's testimony today, been forced to admit that a rate cut may again be on the horizon.

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Peyton Saves the Super Bowl Indicator?

Booms and BustsFinancial MarketsMedia and CultureBusiness Cycles

Blog02/09/2016Mark Thornton

Peyton Manning Just Save the Super Bowl Indicator?

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What Was Quicken Loans Thinking?

Booms and BustsBusiness Cycles

Blog02/08/2016Mark Thornton

Apparently Quicken Loans is thinking like John Maynard Keynes and Paul Krugman. They can create their own bubble and multiplier effect. It's magic!

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Barron's Is Talking Skyscraper Curse

Booms and BustsGlobal EconomyMoney and BanksU.S. EconomyBusiness CyclesMoney and Banking

Blog01/21/2016Mark Thornton

Barron's is writing about skyscrapers and the Skyscraper Curse. They also quote me on the subject.

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Switzerland to Vote on 100% Reserve Banking

Booms and BustsBusiness CyclesMoney and Banking

Blog12/26/2015Mark Thornton

The signatures have been collected and submitted paving the way for a vote to establish 100% reserve banking in Switzerland.

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The Fed Can Do Real Damage Without Even Trying

Booms and BustsThe FedBusiness CyclesCalculation and Knowledge

Blog12/17/2015Jonathan Newman

Whatever the Fed imagines they can control and whatever their real intentions are, a central authority cannot optimally set prices that are in line with people’s preferences. This is especially important for interest rates, which have far-reaching influence...

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The Diabolical Side of ZIRP

Booms and BustsThe FedMoney and BanksBusiness CyclesMoney and BankingPrices

Blog12/14/2015Mark Thornton

ZIRP has created massive asset bubbles throughout the world economy, but also has a diabolical impact on ordinary people who are largely disconnected to the bubbles.