Business Cycles
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Is a Recession Simply a Decline in GDP? What Does That Mean?
The "official" definition of a recession is a two-consecutive-quarter decline in GDP, but there are problems with GDP measurement in the first place.
Surveys or Specifics: Do Economies Respond to Consumer Expectations or the Facts at Hand?
Much is made of surveys determining consumer confidence in the economy. Expectations, however, must line up both with proper economic theories and the information at hand.
GDP Provides a False Reading of the State of the Economy
Most economists see GDP as a snapshot of the performance of the economy. However, it is better understood as a misleading statistic which fails to accurately describe what really is happening economically.
The Federal Reserve Now Is between the Proverbial Rock and a Hard Place
The great credit expansion Alan Greenspan began thirty years ago has finally run its course. The Fed no longer can expand credit to fight the oncoming recession.
The Canaries in the Coal Mines Are No Longer Singing
Mortgage companies and realtors are today's canaries. They're in deep trouble, and so are the rest of us.
The Economy Needs a Volcker Moment
When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman forty years ago, he did what was necessary to bring down inflation. Unfortunately, the current Fed leadership at best is engaging in Volcker Lite.
The Canaries in the Coal Mines Are No Longer Singing
Mortgage companies and realtors are today's canaries. They're in deep trouble, and so are the rest of us.
The Federal Reserve Now Is between the Proverbial Rock and a Hard Place
The great credit expansion Alan Greenspan began thirty years ago has finally run its course. The Fed no longer can expand credit to fight the oncoming recession.
