For several years now discussion of secession has become increasingly mainstream. A new poll highlights regional and partisan views on the topic.
Bright Line Watch asked Americans whether they would support their state seceding from the United State and joining a union with regional states. The question outlined the new unions as follows:
- Pacific: California, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, and Alaska
- Mountain: Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico
- South: Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee
- Heartland: Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Nebraska
- Northeast: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia
Support for secession was highest in the South and West, both at 33 percent, followed by the Northeast (32 percent), the Mountain region (28 percent), and the Heartland (24 percent).
Bright Line Watch’s analysis highlighted the degree to which shared political behavior correlated with higher support:
Support also corresponds with regional partisan context. In the Pacific and Northeast regions, both of which are deep blue and could be expected to be dominated by the Democratic Party (or its post-secession descendants), Democrats favor secession most, followed by independents and Republicans. In the deep red Mountain and Southern regions, that pattern is reversed with Republicans most amenable to secession. In the Heartland, a collection of mostly red states that also includes purple Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, independents are the group most inclined toward secession.
The unwillingness of respondents to reject secession outright is widespread and context-dependent. Republicans express greater support for secession overall than Democrats, but Democrats are more amenable to secession than are Republicans in regions they dominate.
The Americans most likely to support secession were Southern Republicans at 50 percent. Below is a graphical representation of the responses:
Given that a majority of Republican voters do not believe Joe Biden was a legitimately elected president, it will be interesting to see how these sentiments develop over the next few years.
