Good News
- Paul Krugman has declared a “better-than-Goldilocks soft landing” due to (his favored) measures of price inflation reaching two percent and real GDP growing at 3.3 percent.
Bad News
- Credit card delinquency has doubled since 2021.
- Regional bank stocks fell over 10% after Powell’s FOMC press conference.
- The civilian labor force has fallen while government employment keeps reaching new highs.
- 52.7% of political independents, who are less likely to be swayed by which party is in power, say the U.S. economy is getting worse.
- The prices of food, energy, shelter, and used cars have risen twice as much as average earnings since 2020.
- The yield curve has been inverted since October 2022.
- The proportion of workers with multiple jobs recently reached levels not seen since 2007-2008.
- Household debt to disposable income is back over 100%.
- Stock market price-to-earnings ratios are at levels only exceeded by the 2000, 2008, and 2020 crises.
- Small bank cash as a proportion of total assets has fallen, while also taking on large amounts of commercial real estate debt.
- The FOMC removed the following statement from their press release: “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”
