The looming war with Iraq raises concern among US economists that this could trigger a recession. The possible war, it is said, generates uncertainty, which in turn paralyses business and consumer expenditure. Frank Shostak puts the theory of the "exogenous shock" into perspective; there is a basis for recession with or without war.
Stagflation is a term that originated in the early 1970s to identify the simultaneous occurrence of recession and inflation—a phenomenon that Keynesian theory had previously suggested was impossible. The industrialized world is being rudely reminded that stagflation is indeed possible, and policymakers are at a loss as to what to do about it.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last Thursday, during questioning by the Senate's special committee on aging, that he does not believe that a housing price bubble exists on a national level in the United States. "Is Greenspan right?" asks Frank Shostak. To provide an answer to this question one needs to establish—or define—exactly what a bubble is.
As the Washington Post recently reported, "The Federal Reserve Board has recently waged a vigorous campaign of defense, arguing that it was better to have boomed and busted than never to have boomed at all." Poetic perhaps, but is it sound?
The United States faces a situation that resembles the late 1970s when the world began to abandon the dollar and liquidate American investments, writes Hans Sennholz. It took two years of Federal Reserve inactivity and 20 percent interest rates to restore foreign confidence and lure foreigner investors and creditors back.
Two and a half years into one of the most severe Bear Markets in History, the most striking feature of the typical economic discussion is the persistent state of denial about how perilous our situation truly is. Also notable is the unthinking promulgation of a species of economic fallacies which, though long since discredited, keep springing up like weeds to choke our reasoning.
Contrary to Keynesian dreams, there are several undeniable realities of a recessionary environment, writes Lew Rockwell. Wages tend to fall. Businesses tend to be liquidated. Resources are withdrawn from investment and put into savings. Consumers spend less. Stock prices fall. All of these tendencies may seem regrettable but they are necessary to bring all sectors back into realistic balance with each other.
The litany is familiar to anyone who knows of the history of the Great Depression: miscalculation, overtaxation, keeping wages and benefits high, prevent the liquidation, boost consumer demand, run up public debt. Fritz Machlup said that this is the path to impoverishment, notes Sean Corrigan.
William Anderson suggests a new slogan to fight the recession: It's the liquidation, stupid. While he doubts that the motto will catch on with Bush and his political rivals, in the end, it really is the liquidation. Those who ignore this kernel of truth really are the stupid ones.
By defaulting on one loan, Argentina may be acknowledging that no country ever became wealthy depending on public financing organizations from another hemisphere. One can hope. Such ideas can lead to economic sovereignty and wealth creation. Such ideas, if spread, can cause industrial revolutions.
