The Interest Rate Shock Will Blow Up the Government’s Ponzi Game

In the international fixed-income markets, interest rates are rising, and the decades-long trend of declining bond yields has undoubtedly been broken. On August 2, 2022, the ten-year United States Treasury yield was 0.5 percent; on October 9, 2023, it had risen to 4.8 percent. Long-term interest rates in Europe, Asia, and Latin America have also risen sharply.

The US Is Entering a Debt Spiral

There are many factors that affect the yield on government bonds. Yet, it is surely no coincidence that we continue to see yields climb as the federal government churns out new government debt at a breakneck speed never before seen during peacetime. 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield—i.e., the interest taxpayers must pay on new government debt—reached an average of 4.38 percent in September. That’s the highest since October of 2007, and if the yield continues to climb, we’ll soon see it topping a 20-year high.