The world equity markets ended November with their biggest monthly rally in three years. Optimism comes from better-than-expected inflation figures, expectations of central bank rate cuts, and general acceptance that earnings and economic growth will be weak but acceptable in 2024.

The main challenge for investors in 2024 is to confirm these hopes as trends.

The first problem is believing that inflation will drop magically without any significant impact on growth and ignoring monetary aggregates.

Early this year, Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guard member, was arrested and charged with transmission of national defense information and other charges. Teixeira allegedly leaked classified documents on the Ukraine war and other foreign policy issues to a Discord gaming group. The document propagated from there and appeared in many news articles in the following months.

2025 Mises Institute Annual Report

Board of Directors

Mr. Yousif Almoayyed, Bahrain

Ms. Deborah Ayers, Sarasota, Florida

Mrs. Patricia Barnett, Coleman, Georgia

Judge John Denson, Samford and Denson LLP

Dr. Peter G. Klein, Baylor University

Mr. Ryan McMaken, Mises Institute

Mr. Mark Murrah, Atlanta, Georgia

Dr. Ron Paul, Lake Jackson, Texas

Dr. Don Printz, Stone Mountain, Georgia

Driving to Mises Institute at 518 West Magnolia Avenue, Auburn, Alabama, 36832.

The trend of punishing people in Jamaica for being disrespectful is becoming troubling. Citizens support penalizing uncouth characters without recognizing that sanctions violate free speech. During the apex of lockdown hysteria, one man was coerced by the police to apologize after daring to criticize the prime minister. This act of overreach by the police was unsurprisingly lauded by a wide cross-section of society.

I had my monthly one-on-one with my boss recently. Supply chains/logistics came up. My mind wandered as this has been a hot topic in the wake of the shutdowns of a few years ago. But I also thought of the ESG crusade. 

Among other things, our company attempts to navigate supply chain issues for clients as effectively and efficiently as possible. Doing so helps them flourish, and when they succeed, their employees prosper, their owners profit, and we shine as well. 

For the last few years, Jerome Powell has remained constant: the Fed was ready to do anything necessary until inflation returned to its 2% target. 

Today, Powell blinked.

Meredith Whitney told CNBC, “30 percent of young men said they have not had sex in over a year and don’t seem to care.” Half of the young man population isn’t interested in dating and according to Pew Research 63% of young men are single, the highest percentage ever. 

The latest jobs report looks good, at first glance. The umployment rate is below 4%, though it increased since April. Employers added jobs, but mostly in the public sector. Last July I posted something on how declines in the private-public employment ratio (PPER) predict recessions. The PPER was 5.92 last summer. The latest PPER is 5.84. The vertical gray bars in the graph below mark recessions. The blue line is the PPER.