Fed Watch

Kraken Financial creates a 100% full-reserve warehouse model. But this poses a direct threat to the fractional-reserve system.

RMP is not QE, nor is it QT. It is an unprecedented, interventionist, unsound policy. The Fed is no longer backstopping the long end, forcing twenty years of interest rate suppression to finally unravel. Welcome to the Austrian nightmare.

“Everything is fine.” That’s the official narrative, but a nation cannot print its way to prosperity; if it did, we'd all be rich by now.

What keeps central bankers up at night?

A central banker has two lives: the first is spent studying neoclassical money supply mechanics; the second begins when they realize the real world doesn’t work that way. 

If executed perfectly, this swap allows the Fed to neutralize a shrinking money supply by swapping $2 trillion in mortgages for $2 trillion in government debt. 

If executed perfectly, this swap allows the Fed to neutralize a shrinking money supply by swapping $2 trillion in mortgages for $2 trillion in government debt. 

A soft coup took place in D.C. last night, and Jerome Powell could stay in the bunker until 2028, if he so chooses.

Whether rates go up or down, neither outcome will be pleasant, leaving a bondholder caught between the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable.

Whether rates go up or down, neither outcome will be pleasant, leaving a bondholder caught between the Unthinkable and the Unimaginable.