The 2024 political circus kicked off in earnest last night with the first Republican primary debate of the cycle. While Donald Trump joined Tucker Carlson on the platform formerly known as Twitter, eight candidates took the stage moderated by Fox News.
This contrast between new and old served as a running theme of the evening.
While it seems inevitable that Donald Trump will be the oldest nominee in Republican Party history, it is uncontroversial that he represents a reboot of the traditional GOP. Not only has he made a lasting impact on the rhetoric embraced by prospective candidates, with the 39-year-old Vivek Ramaswamy projecting himself as “America First 2.0”, but his aggressive style of attacking opponents while entertaining the audience is now a requirement for the Republican field. Even Nikki Haley, who embodies Jeb Bush-style conservatism in high heels, aimed to mirror Trump’s attacks on the party, accurately slamming the GOP for their culpability for America’s reckless debt and spending.
The need for primary challengers to fill Trump’s void as entertainer-in-chief has worked against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who just months ago was polling over 30% based on political and policy success in Florida. Ascendant is Ramaswamy, whose every line seems tailor-made for an audience that has increasingly replaced corporate media for podcasts. While Chris Christie attacked Vivek by comparing his responses to ChatGPT, it’s unquestionably been effective. Ramaswamy entered the debate in third place, with some polls placing him higher than DeSantis.
While it’s fair to question the sincerity of Ramaswamy, given differences in his 2023 rhetoric compared to past positions on issues like covid, Trump, and January 6, his appeal is worth analyzing. Primary politics consists of the art of throwing enough red meat to a partisan base to get them to show up on election day. While much of Vivek’s campaign outreach is clearly targeted to Trump fans who are willing to consider an alternative (younger) candidate, he has also made a deliberate choice to court the lingering Ron Paul voter. At a recent Young Americans for Liberty conference, Vivek attacked the Federal Reserve and praised Bitcoin. In response to the common chant of “End the Fed,” he responded with, “I say Kill the Fed, you’re far nicer than I am.” He has called for abolishing the FBI and other government agencies. He’s even questioned the official narrative on 9/11, once one of the strongest GOP taboos.
The average Republican voter, however, has changed. Polling has demonstrated that the last few years have seen a significant erosion in trust for federal agencies and institutions, in large part due to the regime’s response to a relatively moderate Trump administration. The result is an average Republican voter closer to Alex Jones than Bill O’Reilly.
Last night’s debate showed how few Republicans who see themselves worthy of being president know what year they are living in.
While this was most on display every time the view audience was subjected to the appearance of Asa Hutchinson, a living embodiment that someone can have a successful 40-year career in government without much talent, it was most entertaining to see in the on-stage conflict between Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence.
Pence’s debate strategy seemed determined to make two points: one, use the phrase “Trump-Pence Administration” as much as possible, perhaps deciding that his low polling numbers were simply a result of Americans not being aware of his prior position. Second, the classic Republican tactic of appealing to the ghost of Ronald Reagan.
Unfortunately for Pence, the spirit of Ronald Reagan was finally put to rest in 2016. While still a beloved historical figure in Republican circles, the impotence of generations of self-branded Reaganite conservatives gave rise to the modern right shaped in the shadow of Trump. Debates still may rage within conservative intellectual circles, but in the real world, Republicans have moved on. Going into debate night, almost 80% of primary voters have followed behind three candidates whose careers have been forged by 2016: Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy.
The clearest illustration is on display on the topic of foreign policy. When asked by moderates who would oppose further US spending in the Ukraine conflict, it was DeSantis and Vivek that raised their hands – the latter held higher than the former, which was similarly reflected in the rhetorical responses following the question.
The rest of the stage retreated to predictable outdated rhetoric on America’s global responsibility to be the world’s policeman. Christie and Haley reminded the audience that Putin was guilty of great atrocities: foreign policy through emotional appeals. Pence suggested that anyone who suggests that real tradeoffs exist between spending overseas and domestic issues didn’t deserve the office. This may have worked in 2004, but it does not have the same effect in 2023.
It is this shift in perspective of Americans broadly that is more important than the horse race of political polls. The breakdown of the regime’s ability to control the narrative, which fuels its desire to censor and control alternative platforms such as social media, video streaming, and podcasts, has undermined its underlying strength. In response, the state is lashing out in a fit of what Ryan McMaken has described as regime paranoia.
It was fitting that this conflict between old and new was playing out on a cable news leader, as Donald Trump’s interview with Tucker Carlson was reaching far more people on X.
