Notes in the Margin

It hasn't been this high since 2007. Meanwhile, the average 30-year mortgage has topped 7%.

From John Mearsheimer: "[P]eople all over the planet are rooting for the US (and Israel) to lose its war with Iran.

"In 2023, the NCAA found that approximately 58 percent of 18-to-22-year-olds had wagered on sports, with the financial fallout landing primarily on young men."

"The years leading to Nov 2024 had taught the teachable that the next president, like Biden before him, would continue to play pimp for Israel."

"A defence start-up whose backers include US tech billionaire Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund is building a trio of factories in the US."

Bubble alert: more than half of the 4,454 CEO respondents said “their companies aren’t yet seeing a financial return from investments in AI.”

"This is the epitome of what is called ‘Stockholm Syndrome,’ where the ‘citizen’ (victim) forms a psychological attachment (bond) with his captor, controller, and master; in this case, the government."

One wonders if Trump will try to hand Milei the Falkland islands as a reward for Milei's fanatical support of the State of Israel. 

"All eyes are on the anticipated visit of King Felipe VI to Ceuta. This visit comes as the Spanish government seeks to promote calm and contain the fallout from the migration crisis and recent tensions surrounding the city."

Japanese, German, and US bonds are all rising to multiyear highs. Huge global debt loads are triggering demands for higher yields.