Notes in the Margin

Even though the US held elections in the midst of a civil war, the Ukrainians apparently can't manage any elections during a war in some eastern provinces of the country. 

New jobs report: "The U.S. economy created 862,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously estimated." 

"After soft retail sales numbers, there's the expectation that perhaps, further and deeper rate cuts may be needed more imminently than previously thought..."

Americans who predicted they would have “high quality lives” in five years declined to 59.2% in 2025. That's lower than during the Great Recession and global financial crisis. 

"We know this because...in every presidential election we elected the candidate who promised peace, who then promptly delivered war."

Bitcoin is back at November 2021 levels as bullion and big-tech stocks all take a beating in the midst of new disappointing jobs hiring data. 

"Administrative warrants" embody the new pseudo-law used by federal immigration agents to trample the Bill of Rights.

Gold’s price dropped from close to $5,600 to less than $4,500 on Monday. Silver plunged 31.4% on Friday alone.

Warsh's hawkish credentials are real. His hawkish future is not. Trump didn't pick him to raise rates and crash markets before the midterms. 

If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would succeed current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.