Does the Balance of Payments Determine Exchange Rates?
It is a common belief that a key factor in determining the currency exchange rate is the balance of payments. An increase in imports increases the demand for foreign currency. To obtain the foreign currency, importers buy it using domestic currency, which strengthens the exchange rate of the foreign currency against domestic money. Conversely, an increase in exports, in which exporters exchange their foreign currency earnings for domestic currency, increases the value of the domestic currency exchange rate against the foreign currency.