Here’s Another Reason Why The Government’s Budget Deficit Figures Are Phony Baloney

There is so much in the government’s official deficit figures that is phony it is hard to say what is real.

But we should add at least $89 billion to the official deficit figure. To see why, we need a bit of background.

The US government deficit is supposed to be running at around $1.2 trillion. But the government gets there by using accounting methods that would put private business executives in jail for fraud. The real deficit by different estimates should be multiples higher. This is already widely known.

Help Us Make “The Free Market” Even Better

Now in its 31st year, the Mises Institute’s monthly newsletter, The Free Market, is expanding into a longer, more diverse publication with more articles and interviews, plus Institute Alumni news, and the latest news from our Donors, Members, and Faculty. We’re now seeking submissions of various sorts including featured articles, movie reviews, book reviews, and one-to-four-panel comics.

The Flipside of the Trillion Dollar Coin

As outlandish as the idea of the $1 trillion platinum coin at first appears, it gives us a glimpse of a monetary arrangement that, although far from ideal, is superior to the current system. Now that the Obama Treasury has definitely ruled out the scheme to mint the coin to circumvent the gimmicky debt ceiling, it is instructive to take a closer look at the reason why it did so and to articulate the lessons that can be learned from the episode.

NBER’s Golden Dilemma

NBER has just published a paper, “The Golden Dilemma.” by Claude B. Erb and Campbell R. Harvey. The paper examines several issues regarding the use of gold in financial portfolios. It finds that many of the arguments for owning gold are questionable. For example they find that gold is not a good inflation hedge in the short run (several years) because it does not correlate well with the Consumer Price Index. However, they find that it is good to have during hyperinflation.

NBER Working Paper No. 18706

 

Is Violence a Disease?

A few years ago an economist colleague of mine debated a professor from our university’s school of public health on gun violence and gun control. My colleague walked through the empirical evidence on the effects of gun control laws on crime, accidental injury, and other social ills, citing well-known studies by economists and legal scholars such as John Lott, John Donahue, Gary Kleck, Ian Ayres, etc. As Circle Bastiat readers probably know, the empirical social science evidence, while not conclusive, suggests that stronger gun control leads to increased rates of gun violence.