The Folly of Federal Reserve Stabilization Policy: Part I 1948-1985

The Federal Reserve Board is responsible for formulating macro stabilization policy. More specifically, the Federal Reserve Board seeks tradeoffs between inflation and unemployment rates. Fed officials need meaningful data to formulate useful policies. Data on the unemployment rate that coincides with zero inflation provides a starting point for policy formulation. Fed officials also need data on the rate at which inflation reduces unemployment rates.

The Fed Cannot Cut Rates as Fast as Markets Want

Market participants started the year with aggressive expectations of rapid and large rate cuts. However, after the latest inflation, growth, and job figures, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen from 39 to 24%. Unfortunately for many, headline figures will support a hawkish Federal Reserve, and the latest comments from Jerome Powell suggest rate cuts may not come as fast as bond investors would like.