Dumb and Dumber – From Negative Interest Rates to Helicopter Money

We’ve all run into someone who thinks that all it take to bring about prosperity is to give everyone a million dollars. If everyone is a millionaire, we’ll all be rich and be able to afford anything we want, or so the thinking goes. Any sound economist knows that wouldn’t be the case, however. If everyone were given a million dollars the increased amount of money chasing the existing stock of goods would merely result in a massive rise in prices. No one would be better off, at least not once prices were once again equilibrated.

The Fed Can’t Save Us

In December, the Fed hiked its target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans of reserves. Since 2008 the Fed’s target for the Fed Funds Rate had been a range of 0 percent – 0.25 percent (or what is referred to as zero to 25 “basis points”). But last month they moved that target range up to 0.25 – 0.50 percent. Ending a seven-year period of effectively zero percent interest rates.

Economists as Modern Astrologers

Last year, economist Paul Romer made headlines when he accused many modern economists of “mathiness,” which is the sin of using mathematics to cover up what should be regarded as implausible and unconvincing research. This can include, as Romer noted, slipping in “preposterous assumptions” into mathematical models to forward one’s own ideological agenda. 

The Fed’s Firepower

Ever since the Fed paused their plans to increase the Federal Funds Rate, many commentators have guessed that the Fed might be expecting another crisis and downturn, and that any “brake tapping” might bring it about too soon.

Bibliography

Abbott, Lawrence. Quality and Competition. New York: Columbia University Press, 1955.

About, Edmond. Handbook of Social Economy. London: Strahan & Co., 1872.

Abramson, A.G. “Permanent Optimistic Bias—A New Problem for Forecasters.” Commercial and Financial Chronicle (February 20, 1958).

Alchian, Armen. “Costs and Outputs.” In Moses Abramovitz, ed., The Allocation of Economic Resources. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1959. Reprinted in Alchian Economic Forces at Work. Liberty Press, 1977.