Rising Oil Prices Don’t Cause Inflation
A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US are likely to be set by the yearly growth rate in the price of oil (see chart).
But is it valid to suggest that a price of an important input such as oil is a key determinant of the prices of goods and services?