This is Part One of a two-part series. Part Two is here.

Venezuela’s current economic catastrophe is well documented. Conventional narratives point to Hugo Chávez’s regime as the primary architect behind Venezuela’s economic tragedy. While Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro deserve the brunt of the blame for Venezuela’s current economic calamity, the underlying flaws of Venezuela’s political economy point to much more systemic problems.

French voters are about to decide who will be president for the next five years, and it is always interesting to see how the electoral campaign is an excellent occasion for mainstream political commentators to remind us how crucial voting is and how it will supposedly allow people to take back control over their own lives. Citizens who denigrate the electoral process are seen as capricious children who are not able to see how lucky they are compared to human beings still living under barbaric, bellicose, and non-democratic regimes around the world.

The history of civilization is the record of a ceaseless struggle for liberty.

One of the Gulf of Mexico’s most iconic fish has also become one of its most politicized, the red snapper. For years now the prized catch has been part of a heated battle between federal regulators, the commercial fishing industry, and charter and recreational fishermen. The result has been fishing seasons consistently shrinking, even as snapper populations grow.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb does not suffer fools gladly. Author of several books including The Black Swan and Antifragile, Taleb is known for his incendiary personality almost as much as his brilliant work in probability theory. Readers of his very active Medium page will experience a formidable mind with no patience for trendy groupthink, a mind that takes special pleasure in lambasting elites with no “skin in the game.”

Bloomberg reported last week that worker mobility has returned to pre-recession levels. That is, Americans have returned to the feverish pace of moving out of state last experienced before the economy began to soften ten years ago. 

This, we are told, is a good sign for efficiency and economic growth: 

Any state, no matter how powerful, cannot not rule solely through the use of brute force. There are too few rulers and too many of us for coercion alone to be an effective means of control. The political class must rely on ideology to achieve popular compliance, masking the iron fist in a velvet glove. Violence is always behind every state action, but the most efficient form of expropriation occurs when the public believes it is in their interest to be extorted.

The Atlanta Fed’s final projected Q1 GDP growth rate was 0.2%. That was down from over 3% earlier in the year. Q1 GDP’s actual (”advanced”) number ended up being 0.7%, so the 0.2% was pretty close. 

But now, the second quarter has begun and the hilarity begins immediately. The forecast has jumped from the 0.2% to a 4.3% forecast for Q2, in a matter of days. Call it a forecast of hope.