Beyond the behavior of speculators or OPEC—which some consider a cartel, if there is anything we can learn is that the fall in oil prices responds to the forces of supply and demand. On the demand side, lower economic activity throughout the world, specially in China, has lowered the price of oil. Projections by the International Energy Agency show how demand weakened in 2014, although it rebounded in 2016.
They’re back. Subprime mortgages. And loan brokers are needed to start making them. Kirsten Grind, who, by the way, wrote a wonderful book about Washington Mutual (WaMu) entitled The Lost Bank, writes for the Wall Street Journal, “Brokers willing to learn the lost art of making risky mortgages are in demand again.”
Nostalgia seems to be very popular in Washington. While the neocons and Democratic Party hard-liners have succeeded in bringing back the Cold War with Russia, it looks like President Trump is determined to take us back to a replay of the Bay of Pigs!
Mario Draghi has again missed an exceptional opportunity to adjust monetary policy. By ignoring the huge risks that are being created from the brutal inflation of financial assets, saying that “there are no signs of a bubble,” the European Central Bank (ECB) remains adamantly focused on creating inflation by decree, denying the effects of technology, demography, and overcapacity.
“No signs of bubble”? I’ll show you some of them myself.
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced an increase in the Federal Funds rate to 1.25 percent. The last time the target rate reached so high was in September of 2008, when the rate was 2.0 percent. In October of that year, the target rate fell to 1.0 percent, and was moved down to 0.25 percent in December. It remained at 0.25 percent for the next 83 months.
This week’s rate increase was the third increase since December 2016, when the Fed increased the rate from 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent.
The Federal Reserve this week raised the Federal Funds Rate a quarter point to 1.25 percent, bringing the rate to the highest it’s been in eight years. One might now say monetary policy has progressed from a policy of “ultra low” rates to simply a policy of low rates.
How this will play out over time continues to depend quite a bit on how much the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and how soon a recession descends on the economy.
“Is Government the Source of Monopoly?” asked Chicago economist Yale Brozen in an essay first published in 1968. Yes, he answered — not only directly, by awarding exclusive licenses and contracts, but also indirectly, via regulation, minimum-wage legislation, and other forms of government intervention.
Just two days ago the FOMC decided once again to raise the target range for the Fed Funds rate, with Yellen expressing optimism about 2% inflation and therefore (in the Keynesian framework), the economy itself. While Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan voted with everyone else (except Neel Kashkari) to hike rates, he today made it clear that the inflation trend is worrying him. If the inflation rate continues to move away from 2%, his opinion is that rate hikes should be suspended.
