The Medicaid Expansion Cheat

Because my courses focus on public policy, I often discuss benefit-cost analyses (BCA) in them. While little discussed in public, the central idea is simply to identify and include all the relevant benefits and costs of a decision, do our best to estimate their values, then choose the option that provides the greatest net benefits. Hardly a radical idea. It can be useful in disciplining our thinking to be more consistent. Benjamin Franklin employed a version of it in making some of his decisions.

The True Costs of Bad Economists, Explained

The eloquent nineteenth-century French economist and liberal Frédéric Bastiat famously noted that what separates a good economist from a bad one is the ability to consider both the seen and the unseen. A bad economist does not recognize the costs down the road, and may thus come to advocate all too costly solutions (as in the commonly used analogy, peeing in one’s pants in the dead of winter to escape the coldwarm at first, followed by freezing).

Over the Cliff: How Brazil’s 2004–2016 Business Cycle Became Its Worst Recession in a Century

Abstract: Abstract: This paper analyzes Brazil’s 2004–16 business cycle, which subsumes what is now regarded as the nation’s most severe macroeconomic recession in more than a century. During the steep recession, which stretched over more than two years, national production at one point fell 3.8 percent per annum while the unemployment rate rose from 4.6 to as high as 11.9 percent. This study, after delineating its methodology, examines the behavior of different Brazilian macroeconomic aggregates during the cycle.