Business Cycles

Recorded at Mises University 2007.

We have today a hybrid of two forms of banking — loan banking (non-inflationary) and deposit banking (inflationary if not 100% reserve holdings).  The cause of booms is the credit expansion by central banks that is not backed by pools of private savings.

The following thoughts on the current economic and financial environment formed part of a recent commentary sent to our firm’s clients.

And, perhaps, it also explains why a careful analysis of the time structure of production (not in terms of an "average" period of production) is a necessary basis for a satisfactory analysis of the trade cycle.

So — even if the current cycle is about to turn — it will surely complete the revolution and move upwards once again and possibly faster than we might expect, thanks to the benign self-interest of the millions of new Asian and East European entrants into our complex, highly interconnected, global economy.

Joseph T. Salerno (2003) argues economic growth has occurred in periods of deflation. The Austrian School’s broad understanding of deflation is underscored by the four definitions offered by Salerno.

It is not surprising that Mises was strongly opposed to the idea that central banks should impose "low" interest rates during a recession in order to keep the economy going.

Jay Taylor made the case that John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman were wrong and that Ludwig von Mises was right. Inflation and depression are caused by excessive credit creation. The Austrians advocate for a gold standard while bankers and politicians hate gold.

In this article we have shown that causality cannot be established by statistical means without a coherent definition of what money is and how it is related to the prices of financial assets. Contrary to various experts who dismiss the importance of money in driving the stock prices, we have shown that this dismissal is based on a wrongheaded framework of thinking.

Roger Garrison calls our attention to this fascinating post