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Economic Forecasters, Take Heart . . .


. . .  climate change forecasting models are even worse than your own models.  A paper published in the peer-reviewed Climate Dynamics "amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy."   Researchers Professor Judith Curry and Dr. Marcia Wyatt find that a natural cycle is responsible for the 17-year pause in climate change--as well as the previous period of warming--during which there has been no statistically significant rise in the earth's temperature since 1997.  As it stands today, the earth's temperature is below almost all the predictions made by the 138 computer models relied upon by the enforcers of climate change orthodoxy, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  The natural "stadium wave" cycle of climate change discovered by Curry and Wyatt predicts that the pause in climate change will extend into the 2030s, in sharp contrast to the 0.3 to 0.7 C  warming forecast by the IPCC earlier this year.

Joseph Salerno is academic vice president of the Mises Institute, professor emeritus of economics at Pace University, and editor of the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics.

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