Does the Inverted Yield Curve Signal a Coming Recession?
Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession.
Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession.
Despite the soothing hot air from the White House and Fed officials, the financial system is becoming increasingly fragile and unstable. Maybe all of that intervention the past decade was not wise.
Canada created its central bank during the Great Depression, ostensibly to stabilize the currency and protect the banking system. Today, that system is falling apart, thanks to inflationary central bank policies.
By any conventional measures of finance, the Federal Reserve has negative equity. In the long run, cooking the books only puts off the day of reckoning.
The current banking crises have deep roots in US financial history. Monetary authorities have engaged in inflationary behavior for more than a hundred years.
The combination of higher rates and declining optimism about the economy, plus slumps in equity, private investments, and bond valuations, is going to inevitably lead to a massive crunch in access to credit and financing.
If the Fed is serious about bringing down price inflation, it's difficult to see how the Fed can do that while also guaranteeing more liquidity to an obviously fragile banking system.
Walter Bagehot, as Jim Grant writes, believed that bankers and central bankers should exhibit financial discipline. He would not recognize today's banking world.
Even when currency is backed by gold, governments have many political reasons to pursue national, territorial currencies. Now there are hundreds of national currencies. It didn't have to be this way.
While the Fed and the Biden administration try to assure Americans that their banks are safe and secure, the numbers tell a different story.