Booms and Busts

A report on my day inside the Fed

International trade grasped headlines with Monday’s announcement that twelve governments have agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. While we should expect to see this celebrated in the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal, it is unfortunate even libertarian organizations are praising the agreement.

Thanks to centuries of government interventionism, Brazil remains mired in a sluggish boom-bust economy, and the government has now squandered the benefits of decades of growth. Fortunately, free-market ideas are growing more popular in Brazil and may someday offer a way out.

The Boom has Turned to Bust.

There are so many skyscrapers being built in China that I have not been able to keep track of them all. The "Walking Stick" building has just become the second tallest skyscraper in the world. This does not qualify as a genuine worldwide "skyscraper signal," but it does represent a signal for China.

Senior Fellow Mark Thornton is interviewed on The Power & Market Report. Dr.

So many skyscrapers are being built right now that there has emerged a shortage in the special glass panels that form the exterior of most modern skyscrapers. 

Thirteen powerpoint slides lead you through Dr. Thornton's presentation. There exist strong correlations between either the announcement or the completion of the world's tallest building and GDP, but it is not held that you can accurately forecast a recession or financial panic by this measurement. Thornton suggests the common cause is artificially low interest rates.

Our method of calculating GDP growth is hopelessly flawed, and is more likely determined largely by the growth of the money supply in the economy. So as the Fed pumps more, the economy appears to grow also.