Notes in the Margin

"Analysts have warned that prices could top $100 a barrel if oil trade is disrupted for a prolonged period of time, or if the war spills over into neighboring countries."

According to a Reuters poll conducted on Sunday, only 27% of Americans support the US attacking Iran. 43% of Americans oppose the war. 

"Trump administration officials ⁠acknowledged ⁠in closed-door briefings with congressional staff ⁠on Sunday that there was no intelligence suggesting Iran planned to attack U.S. forces." 

Kuwait “mistakenly” shot down three U.S. F-15 fighter jets on Sunday after strikes were launched against Iran one day earlier, according to U.S. Central Command (Centcom).

"Saturday’s attack on Iran was posed as a decapitation strike; it also decapitated several dozen schoolgirls in southern Iran within the first few hours..."

Sam Altman said some companies are engaging in “AI washing,” invoking the technology as cover for layoffs they would have made anyway.

The core PPI increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%.

Forty-one percent of Americans now say they sympathize more with the Palestinians in the Middle East situation, while 36% sympathize more with the Israelis.

UBS downgraded U.S. equities, saying factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.

“As soon as Congress reconvenes next week, we will compel a vote of the full House on the bipartisan Khanna-Massie War Powers Resolution.”