Brazil’s Monetary Hangover: Why Lula’s Fiscal Push Keeps Interest Rates High
Brazil is again teaching a lesson that economists should not need to relearn: a government cannot buy prosperity by pushing demand today while leaving production, saving, and investment to carry the bill tomorrow. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration is publicly frustrated with high interest rates, but the numbers tell a simpler story. Brazil’s own central bank data show that inflation expectations remain above target, the policy rate remains high, and fiscal risks remain one of the market’s central concerns.