Era of Big Government Revisited

After it was announced that the FY2003 budget deficit would inch even closer to the one-half trillion mark ($455 billion), the OMB announced that the average budget deficit for the next five years will be $380 billion--and this is based on the most optimistic assumptions.  The White House defends its small tax cuts as being part of the solution to the deficit crisis, but based on its own projections, the solution it envisions must not kick in until sometime after 2008.

Christianity’s Free-Market Tradition

Those of us who know some economics are used to wincing when the typical clergyman makes a pronouncement on political economy. So it comes as a bit of a shock to read Late Medieval religious figures, avowedly concerned with justice and morality, and find that not only are they economically literate but that in many cases their economic theory was far more advanced than many professional economists who came after them.

Bremer: Iraq Needs a Welfare State

The Road Ahead in Iraq, and How to Navigate it, by L. Paul Bremer (NYT): “We are pouring resources into re-establishing basic services and creating jobs....We are also creating a social safety net for any resulting disruptions. And we believe that a method should be found to assure that every citizen benefits from Iraq’s oil wealth. One possibility would be to pay social benefits from a trust financed by oil revenues.

Freddie and Financial Crisis

The two housing GSEs (government-sponsored enterprises) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, dominate the mortgage finance sector.  They operate on tremendous amounts of leverage and they exposed to swings in their asset and liabilitiy values if interest rates move.  They claim to have hedged their interest rate risk through derivatives, but even if that were true, then some other financial institutions are now exposed to enormous risk.

The Fate of the Dollar

According to this article by Bloomberg reporter William Pesek, Asian investors, who own a huge amount of agency debt, are getting worried about the soundness of Fannie and Freddie.  Freddie has recently been rocked by an accounting scandal.   In spite of the denials by Fannie and Freddie that their securities are government-guaranteed, the Asian markets think that they are and this is one of their main appeals.