The CRE Bust is a Slow-Moving Train

Day-to-day we don’t hear much about the commercial office property crash. As The Fed’s Michael Barr said at an event hosted by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition in Washington, “This is the kind of thing where it’s likely to be a very slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward,” he said, adding that refinancing deals will play out in the next few years. “It’ll take some time.”

US Job Growth is Slower than Reported

The news media has been reporting steady job growth in the US economy since the Covid 19 crisis. Employment has grown steadily. However, data on employment represents progress in the number of jobs filled. The total number of jobs in business plans is the sum of all filled and unfilled jobs, total employees plus total job openings (see the red line in the top-left graph below).