Fed policymakers are of the view that the correct interest rate policy could bring the economy onto a path of economic stability and low price inflation. The idea is to guide interest rates toward what is called the “natural” interest rate. The natural rate is believed to be one that is consistent with stable prices and a balanced economy.

What is required then is that Fed policymakers successfully target the federal funds rate toward this natural interest rate.

As Jeffrey Lacker leads the pack on the Fed’s “concern of overheating” front, last Friday’s 2016 fourth quarter GDP numbers completely contradict the narrative. Coming in at a paltry 1.85% growth rate, the Fed was handed yet another excuse to push off the so-called “normalization of interest rates” further into the future. The Fed’s FOMC again confirmed as much at its February meeting. 

2017 is off with a drab whisper as the FOMC, as expected, kept the Fed Funds rate target unchanged at .5-.75%. Further, there was no mention of the alleged three 2017 hikes, which “experts” might consider as to be a dovish move.

Many of us were once convinced that idea of the centrally-planned economy, both in theory and in practice, had been completely buried. Most economists today would argue that the planned economy doesn’t work, and in the last two decades of the twentieth century, almost all the planned economies shifted toward market economics.

It is easy to fall into the trap of the “cost-plus” method. That is, to consider prices for consumer goods to be a function of the costs of production. Unfortunately, the cost-plus method of pricing is commonly taught to MBA students worldwide, thereby cementing a bureaucratic view of business and the economy.

As someone with a relatively distant relationship with horses, I have occasionally seen some with blinders on and wondered exactly why, when I have never noticed any other animal with blinders on. So when my curiosity got the best of me, I did some checking.

2017 is off with a drab whisper as the FOMC, as expected, kept the Fed Funds rate target unchanged at .5-.75%. Further, there was no mention of the alleged three 2017 hikes, which “experts” might consider as to be dovish move.