Growth Trends Measured by GDP and Gross Output

US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at a 0.5% annualized in Q1 after a 1.4% increase in Q4. This was below the 0.7% median projection in a Bloomberg survey.

Non-residential fixed investment fell 5.9% annualized, the biggest decline since the Q2 2009.

The yearly growth rate of GDP eased to 1.9% in Q1 from 2% in the previous quarter.

A declining trend in the momentum growth of AMS (our monetary measure for the US) since October 2011 continues to undermine various bubble activities and hence the growth rate of GDP.

Keynes’s Critique of Econometrics Is Surprisingly Good

In a recent article we had a brief look at Ragnar Frisch’s (1895–1973) vision of econometric model building. As mentioned, Frisch was the first economist chosen over Mises to win the Nobel Prize in 1969. In fact, there was a second one in the same year. Frisch won the prize jointly with Dutchman Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994), who applied Frischian econometrics for the first time in large-scale macro models by the end of the 1930s.