What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us

Nassim Nicholas Taleb does not suffer fools gladly. Author of several books including The Black Swan and Antifragile, Taleb is known for his incendiary personality almost as much as his brilliant work in probability theory. Readers of his very active Medium page will experience a formidable mind with no patience for trendy groupthink, a mind that takes special pleasure in lambasting elites with no “skin in the game.”

The Myth of the Rule of Law

Any state, no matter how powerful, cannot not rule solely through the use of brute force. There are too few rulers and too many of us for coercion alone to be an effective means of control. The political class must rely on ideology to achieve popular compliance, masking the iron fist in a velvet glove. Violence is always behind every state action, but the most efficient form of expropriation occurs when the public believes it is in their interest to be extorted.

From 0.2% to 4.3%: Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast

The Atlanta Fed’s final projected Q1 GDP growth rate was 0.2%. That was down from over 3% earlier in the year. Q1 GDP’s actual (”advanced”) number ended up being 0.7%, so the 0.2% was pretty close. 

But now, the second quarter has begun and the hilarity begins immediately. The forecast has jumped from the 0.2% to a 4.3% forecast for Q2, in a matter of days. Call it a forecast of hope.

Central Banks’ Obsession with Price Stability Leads to Economic Instability

For most economists the key factor that sets the foundation for healthy economic fundamentals is a stable price level as depicted by the consumer price index.

According to this way of thinking, a stable price level doesn’t obscure the visibility of the relative changes in the prices of goods and services, and enables businesses to see clearly market signals that are conveyed by the relative changes in the prices of goods and services. Consequently, it is held, this leads to the efficient use of the economy’s scarce resources and hence results in better economic fundamentals.