The Mythology of the “Natural Interest Rate”

Myth : A huge and growing global savings surplus during the first two decades of this century has pressed down the natural rate (some say neutral rate) of interest. Actual very-low and sometimes negative market rates of interest reflect this.

Reality : Estimates of the neutral rate according to central bank consensus definition have fallen, but these involve dubious “top-down” observations about economic aggregates and theoretical constructs based on an unsound money regime.

Taking a Stand for “the People” Usually Means Hurting Actual People

Anti-market pundits and politicians have long claimed that unregulated markets are damaging to communities, and therefore must be regulated, restrained, and made to fit our policy preferences.

“Market capitalism is a tool, like a staple gun or a toaster,” conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson declared last January. The implication being that markets can be directed by government to do what Carlson wants them to do.

The Repo Crisis Shows the Damage Done by Central Bank Policies

The Federal Reserve has injected $278 billion into the securities repurchase market for the first time. Numerous justifications have been provided to explain why this has happened and, more importantly, why it lasted for various days. The first explanation was quite simplistic: an unexpected tax payment. This made no sense. If there is ample liquidity and investors are happy to take financing positions at negative rates all over the world, the abrupt rise in repo rates would simply vanish in a few hours.