The Mythology of the “Natural Interest Rate”
Myth : A huge and growing global savings surplus during the first two decades of this century has pressed down the natural rate (some say neutral rate) of interest. Actual very-low and sometimes negative market rates of interest reflect this.
Reality : Estimates of the neutral rate according to central bank consensus definition have fallen, but these involve dubious “top-down” observations about economic aggregates and theoretical constructs based on an unsound money regime.