Does Milton Friedman’s “Plucking Model” Refute Austrian Business Cycle Theory?

Noah Smith has a new Bloomberg column titled, “Milton Friedman Got Another Big Idea Right.” Specifically, Smith points to a new paper that apparently confirms Friedman’s famous “plucking model” of recessions. Here’s how Smith contrasts Friedman’s theory from others, including the Misesian theory of boom-bust:

The American Middle Class Isn’t Disappearing — But it’s Not All Good News

I’m not of the opinion that the American economy is doing amazingly well. However, I’m also not of the opinion that it is falling apart, or that the American middle class is disappearing before our eyes. Nor is there is no one, single, magic statistic we can point to and say “see, we’re all worse off — or better off — now.” Aggregate economic data is by its very nature lacking in nuance. Moreover, different measures of economic growth and prosperity can be conflicting and woefully incomplete.