From California to New Jersey, Americans are protesting in the streets. They are demanding an end to house arrest orders given by government officials over a virus outbreak that even according to the latest US government numbers will claim fewer lives than the seasonal flu outbreak of 2017–18.
The money supply growth rate rose again in March, climbing to a 92-month high. The last time the growth rate was higher was during July 2012, when the growth rate was 11.5 percent. At that time, however, money supply growth was on its way down. The current upward trend has more in common with the trend we saw during late 2008 and early 2009.
Governments and their central banks have put together mega–bailout packages. In the US, President Donald J. Trump has signed off on a $2 trillion “virus relief package” amounting to around 10 percent of the US gross domestic product.
Information on total deaths through April 4 shows no indication of a general surge in deaths in the United States. It’s quite possible that we’ll see April’s total mortality begin to show levels well above normal, but the weekly data we have so far show no indication of this.
Although the heads of the world’s largest oil-producing nations were quick to claim a diplomatic victory following the latest OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries “plus” non-OPEC oil producers) output-cut agreement, crude prices are telling a different story. Prompt month Brent and WTI futures contracts are now trading nearly 20 percent below their early April highs, both returning to a supercontango forward curve price structure following the conclusion of the OPEC+ meeting.
