Discovering Markets

Abstract: This paper extends subjective expectations theory to form a new approach called the discovering markets hypothesis (DMH). Market participants form expectations on the basis of subjective knowledge and communicate with each other through narratives to improve their understanding of factual information before acting in markets. Thus, market prices are shaped by the subjective interpretation of emerging facts and shared narratives. To understand how new narratives replace existing ones, we refer to the theory of scientific revolutions.

Thomas Mayer (thomas.mayer@fvsag.com) is founding director of Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, Cologne, Germa

Marius Kleinheyer (marius.kleinheyer@fvsag.com) is a research analyst at the Flossbach von Storch Research Institute