The “Miracle Recovery” Narrative: We’ll Just Print Our Way to Prosperity

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been constantly bombarded by news reports and “expert” analyses celebrating an incredible global economic recovery. They’re not even presented as projections or expectations anymore, but as a fact, as though the return to vibrant growth were already underway. Stock markets certainly seem to agree, going from record high to record high while all the political and institutional leaders congratulate themselves on a job well done. 

The American Rescue Plan: Limits of the Highly Visible

“We believe that hindsight will show the champion of head-smacking craziness in the American stock market to be the period playing out right now.”
~ Paul Singer, letter to Elliott Management shareholders, January 28, 2021

Who says finance has to be boring? Investing is often like watching paint dry, sometimes terrifying and occasionally exhilarating. Today the stock market is more than fun; it’s a sure thing.

Monetary Savings versus Real Savings

According to the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) the US personal savings rate stood at 13.6 percent in February 2021 against 8.3 percent in February 2020. Since consumption expenditure is considered as the driving force of the economy, obviously a strengthening in savings, which implies less spending, cannot be good for economic activity, so it is held. Conversely, a decline in savings, which is an increase in spending is considered as good news for economic activity.