Well, currency debasement is pretty bad, as a few key statistics will reveal, but first some background.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second month, much is still in flux and our information is far from perfect, but three things stand out.

In the New York Times article “How High Inflation Will Come Down,” Paul Krugman suggests that the key for future inflation is inflation expectations. Krugman does not think that currently inflation expectations are comparable to the 1980s. According to him:

It may be years before we fully realize the ramifications of the lockdown policies governments around the world have imposed on their citizens in response to covid-19, but evidence of the costs is starting to trickle in.

The invasion of Ukraine, the spike in inflation and the risks of supply shortages have made some politicians dust off some of the worst economic ideas in history: autarky and protectionism.

Money supply growth rose for the third month in a row in February, continuing ongoing growth from October’s twenty-one-month low. Even with February’s rise, though, money supply growth remains far below the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth in the United States often climbed above 35 percent, well above even the “high” levels experienced from 2009 to 2013.

The Evolution of Modern Grand Strategic Thought by Lukas Milevski. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016. 175pp., £50.00 (h/b), ISBN 9780198779773