Markets are pricing a rapid decline in price inflation and the end of central bank policy normalization. However, there are two challenges ahead that we must consider. The most important is that price inflation is cumulative, and the year-on-year change between January and July was supported by the base effect. When the CPI inflation rate used for
The United States is borrowing its way to disguise recession. The headline economic figures for the United States look robust. However, details show concerning weaknesses. Real GDP growth surged to 4.9% in the third quarter, above the consensus estimate of 4.5%. However, some analysts, including Bloomberg, expected up to 5% growth based on the
The world equity markets ended November with their biggest monthly rally in three years. Optimism comes from better-than-expected inflation figures, expectations of central bank rate cuts, and general acceptance that earnings and economic growth will be weak but acceptable in 2024. The main challenge for investors in 2024 is to confirm these hopes
Los mercados están valorando un rápido descenso de la inflación de precios y el fin de la normalización de la política de los bancos centrales. Sin embargo, hay dos retos futuros que debemos tener en cuenta. El más importante es que la inflación de los precios es acumulativa, y la variación interanual entre enero y julio se apoyó en el efecto
Los Estados Unidos se endeuda para disimular la recesión. Las cifras económicas generales de los Estados Unidos parecen sólidas. Sin embargo, los detalles muestran debilidades preocupantes. El crecimiento del PIB real aumentó al 4,9% en el tercer trimestre, por encima de la estimación de consenso del 4,5%. Sin embargo, algunos analistas, entre
Los mercados mundiales de renta variable cerraron noviembre con su mayor subida mensual en tres años. El optimismo procede de unas cifras de inflación mejores de lo previsto, las expectativas de recortes de tipos de los bancos centrales y la aceptación general de que los beneficios y el crecimiento económico serán débiles pero aceptables en 2024.
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The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard.
Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.