Interview with Randall G. Holcombe
Interview with Randall G. Holcombe
The Austrian Economics Newsletter
|
Summer 1998
Volume 18, Number 2
Markets and the Quality of Life
An Interview with Randall G. Holcombe
Randall G. Holcombe is DeVoe Moore professor of
economics at Florida State University and an adjunct scholar
of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama. He is
author of eight book including Public Finance and the
Political Process (1983), An Economic Analysis of
Democracy (1985), Economic Models and Methodology
(1989), and Public Policy and the Quality of Life
(1995), along with many articles in academic journals,
including the Review of Austrian Economics and the
Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics. He is also
editor of Fifteen Great Austrian Economists (Auburn,
Ala: Mises Institute, 1998). He was interviewed at the 4th
Austrians Scholars conference, April 3-4, 1998.
AEN: What gave rise to your book on the quality of
life?
HOLCOMBE: After the collapse of the Soviet Union
and the fall of the East Bloc, it is widely recognized that
markets do a better job of producing goods and services than
central planning. The facts speak for themselves and have
brought some degree of closure to the debate originally
kicked off by Mises shortly after the Soviet Union was
created.
At the same time, there is this idea that there are other
aspects to our lives that aren't about producing goods and
services. Instead, they are about the quality of life
itself, and the market is not that good at protecting that.
Sure, people say, let the market handle production, but we
still need a central plan to preserve and enhance our
quality of life.
The Mises Hayek argument against socialism turns out to
be highly relevant to these debates. They weren't just
arguing against socialism; they were arguing for the
necessity of market prices as signals that make economic
coordination possible.
My book revisits the Austrian case against government
planning, and then looks at a number of these quality of
life issues to show how market mechanisms are better than
government planning in enhancing our quality of life.
It's appalling to me that people are constantly finding
problems for the government to solve, even though the
evidence shows that government isn't much good at anything
it does. Government control may sound good in the abstract.
But what it really means is: whoever has the most political
power decides what's done.
AEN: In the course of your argument, you come to
the defense of so-called urban sprawl. What does this phrase
mean?
HOLCOMBE: There's no good definition of "urban
sprawl," but that doesn't keep government from legislating
against it. There is a section of Florida's growth
management legislation that says our land-use plans are
supposed to prevent the proliferation of urban sprawl. When
people use the phrase, they mean low-density development
that spreads out from downtown. Other people think of
unsightly strip shopping centers.
I use the definition provided by Florida's Department of
Community Affairs, the agency that tells local communities
how they can and cannot develop. The DCA says one indicator
of urban sprawl is leap-frog development, where development
is not contiguous with other development. Another indicator
is strip or ribbon development, which run along corridors or
highways. A final example is low-density, single-use
development, where there are miles upon miles of houses with
no businesses.
But when you look at these development patterns, they
actually can be the components of efficient development.
Let's say you have a housing subdivision that leapfrogs
undeveloped land. The developers are seeking out lower land
costs and people who purchase homes there are seeking more
space for the dollar.
Since nobody wants to build a shopping center on the
outskirts of town, leapfrogging creates an economic
opportunity for commercial development. It will already be
surrounded by residential areas on either side. This is a
good way to develop land.
In the same way, nobody wants a house on a major
thoroughfare. But if you have strip or ribbon development,
and there is undeveloped land in between these developed
strips, there's a good place for residential areas. You can
live on a quiet street and yet have convenient access to
major shopping.
Finally, low-density, single-use development is typically
brought about by zoning laws that prevent multiple-use
development. The same people who push for zoning regulations
then turn around and complain about the results their
policies bring about. If we just leave the market alone, the
result is an enhancement of the quality of life.
AEN: What are the consequences of anti-sprawl
legislation?
HOLCOMBE: As with all central planning, you end up
with a miniature version of what Mises called "planned
chaos." It creates less efficient land use patterns than you
would get if you just let property owners decide how to use
property on their own.
It also generates a big transfer of wealth from some
property owners to others. If you have property in what is
sometimes called an urban-service area, you can develop your
property. But if you own land outside that area, the value
of your property is pushed down.
If undeveloped land is declared undevelopable, the
present value is reduced. Sometimes this can have huge
consequences. If you are a farmer and are trying to borrow
money against the value of your property, your borrowing
ability may be restricted, even if you did not plan to
develop your land.
Typically this wealth transfer runs from the poor to the
rich. People who live in apartments are poorer relative to
people who live in owner-occupied houses. Development
restrictions push up the prices of both. That raises the
wealth of homeowners, but hurts renters. You can see why
some interest groups might favor land restrictions. But they
still create inefficient land-use patterns and coercively
transfer wealth.
AEN: You also talk about the law of nuisance.
HOLCOMBE: A nuisance is something you do that
annoys your neighbors. Prohibiting this has a long history
in common law as a good way to control externalities. For
example, the law of nuisance is what prevents somebody from
putting a cement factory next to your family's home. What's
happened in the case of land-use specifically, is that
zoning laws have replaced the law of nuisance.
It used to be that cement companies would not open up
next door for fear of creating a nuisance and being shut
down. Now the managers can go to the zoning board and appeal
for the land to be zoned industrial. Then they have a
defense no matter how much of a nuisance they cause.
There's an interesting case in Florida. Runoff from sugar
farms was polluting the Everglades. A former governor of
Florida sued the farmers claiming that the runoff is a
nuisance. The sugar farmers shot back that there are
government regulations that control their operations,
including their runoff flow. They claimed that because they
are in compliance, they are not subject to the law of
nuisance. When the suit was brought, the court agreed, and
threw out the suit. That is now being reconsidered.
AEN: You also write about restrictive covenants.
HOLCOMBE: A restrictive covenant is a contract
among owners which allows them to guarantee that property
will be used in a certain way. When I bought my house, along
with it came a long list of regulations drawn up by the
homeowners association. They aren't government regulations;
they are private and designed to keep property values high.
These covenants are increasingly common and very efficient
market means of insuring the quality of life. The key is
that they are entered into voluntarily. They are used in
areas where there is no zoning, but also in areas with heavy
zoning restrictions.
AEN: How to the initial owners know the kinds of
private regulations that are going to enhance property
values?
HOLCOMBE: They can't know for sure since knowledge
is never perfect. The question is: what institutional
arrangements are most suitable for discovering the best
method? It turns out that markets are much better at
planning for the long term than governments.
If you own property, you have an incentive to maintain
the value of property, even long after you are dead and
gone. At any time, you or your heirs can sell the property.
With government ownership, there is no incentive to maintain
property values because it is always unclear who is going to
control it in the future.
Let's assume that the environmentalists are really
sincere about improving our quality of life. Without having
a direct stake in the value of property, there is very
little they can do to preserve and enhance the environment.
With government, you can't buy an outcome; you can only rent
it. The next legislature can always undo what the present
one does. Private ownership is the key to protecting an
asset.
AEN: And this is true even with land preservation?
HOLCOMBE: A retired friend of mine owns a tree
farm. He just cut down a stand of trees and then replanted.
Those trees he planted aren't going to be ready for harvest
until well after his lifetime. So why would he do that? Why
would he plant trees that someone else will profit from?
Well, he owns the property and wants to make it as valuable
as possible right now, and today's value depends on the
expected yield in the far-distant future.
It's private ownership that gives the incentive to think
for the long term. Sometimes on television, you see these
awful pictures of forests that have been clear-cut and the
ground is eroding. The idea is to say: look what the evil
loggers have done! But invariably, these pictures are of
national forests, which are owned by the government. The
timber rights are given on a contract basis, and the
recipients have no incentive to preserve the value of the
land because it's not theirs.
AEN: But the cause and effect relationship is not
immediately obvious to the person who sees these pictures.
HOLCOMBE: That's true in many areas of economics.
An example reappears just about every rainy season: flood
insurance, which the government subsidizes. With this
insurance, people can say, "I love this house down by the
river. It might flood, but, hey, I've got my government
flood insurance." The nature of the insurance affects the
way people behave. Private insurance takes account of
relative risks, but public insurance causes people to
disregard risks.
AEN: And assessing risk is a key to the quality of
life.
HOLCOMBE: Product quality in general illustrates
the point even better. If the government didn't assume a
monopoly on the regulatory function, private regulatory
agencies would pop up everywhere to certify quality.
Underwriters Laboratories is a good example. It is entirely
private and non profit, but it produces the most trusted
seal of safety there is. These days, you almost can't bring
an electric product to market without having the UL stamp on
it.
Another example of a private regulatory agency is Best
Western Motels. They own no motels. But they'll let you put
the sign up that says "Best Western" if you meet their
guidelines. They've got dozens of pages of regulations that
you must meet: how wide the halls are, the temperature in
the bathrooms, the quality of the doors, the quality of the
television reception, and on and on. If you meet their
regulations, you pay them for their sign.
Why would anybody pay to be regulated like that? The
answer lies in an understanding of consumer preference.
You're driving down the street thinking about stopping at a
motel. There's "Mom and Pop's Motel" but you've never heard
of it. There's also "Mom and Pop's Best Western Motel," and
you choose it because the risk of poor service is reduced.
Companies are willing to pay private regulatory agencies
like Underwriters Laboratories and Best Western in exchange
for certifying their products.
AEN: And can this approach be extended to areas
like medicine and law?
If we did away with state licensure of doctors tomorrow,
allowing anyone who wants to practice medicine to do so,
credentialing agencies would spring up everywhere. The
American Medical Association would certainly work as a
private credentialing organization.
And it would have competitors. A patient might say, "I've
been going to an AMA doctor, but I'd like to try a different
kind of doctor." Licensure of doctors serves as a
cartelization device to keep out competitive approaches.
Doctors get infuriated with me when I say that, but it's
true.
The same is true of law. You might argue that we need
state licensure of lawyers because courts are run by the
state. But even here, look at the huge increases in private
arbitration. They correct for the unresponsiveness of
government courts. It's proof the government need not
monopolize courts or lawyer certifications. Private agencies
can take over the function of guaranteeing quality judicial
services.
This whole approach has been eliminated by government
regulation, which crowds out private regulation. Government
uses tax dollars to finance its regulation; generally firms
prefer this to spending their own money to certify good
quality. Sometimes people say that the rarity of private
regulation makes the case for government regulation. In
fact, private regulation is rare because government
regulation is so widespread.
AEN: Why is private better than government
regulation?
HOLCOMBE: Government regulations do not ensure the
quality level that consumers desire. Regulatory agencies are
not responsive to consumers but to lobbying pressure,
typically applied by the very industry being regulated. So
government regulations end up protecting certain big players
in an industry against market forces. Quality standards
become an arena for using coercive instead of market
pressure against competitors.
Also, there is no rational cost accounting with
government agencies. How much should be spent when
evaluating quality? What constitutes quality? At what point
do the costs of raising quality exceed the benefits?
Bureaucratic regulations cannot answer these questions with
any degree of assurance. Markets are needed to sort out
these issues.
Government involvement with health care -not just
licensure but also subsidies and direct benefits -has
eclipsed the role of the consumer. I was talking to a doctor
the other day, an old-timer, who told me that one of the
first questions his patients used to ask him was: how much
will this procedure cost? Now that question has no relevance
because consumers are rarely personally affected by the
costs of procedures. This is a consequence of government
involvement of all sorts.
AEN: It seems like every year or so the Congress
passes another bill increasing government control over
medicine.
HOLCOMBE: This raises a crucial problem of
democracy. Instead of looking to the Constitution or to
individual rights as a normative standard, public policy
tries to give people what they want. Early on, the Clintons
assumed, wrongly as it turns out, that people wanted full
socialization of medicine. The interesting thing about that
debate was not the outcome but the process, which depended
so heavily on public opinion.
If the majority polled had said they wanted the Clinton
plan, it would probably have passed. Polls seem to be
driving public policy across the board. Every news story
comes with a little poll attached, as if this were the
crucial consideration. This is not the way a free society is
supposed to function.
AEN:Your newest studies for Austrian journals have
been in public-goods theory
HOLCOMBE: I've been interested in the subject
since my student days. Many of the interesting questions in
economics have to do with the public sector. From economics
we learn how markets allocate resources when markets are
left alone. But then, according to the public finance
literature, we need this huge public sector because there
are supposedly problems with the market.
Modern public finance theory starts out from mathematical
conditions for the stability of competitive equilibrium.
These models provide clear conditions that have to be met
for market institutions to allocate resources efficiently.
This allows us to look at the math; when the condition isn't
met, there is a role for government. From there, developed
this whole literature of "market failure" in the 1950s.
The theory says there are generally four reasons why
markets might not work: externalities, public goods,
monopoly, and economic instability. That taxonomy is still
in principles of economics books today. The presumption is
that government must intervene.
AEN: Yet even the classical economists said
government should perform functions the market cannot
perform.
HOLCOMBE: Yes, but more for philosophical reasons.
Today, it is based on a seemingly scientific foundation.
Beginning in the 1950s, economists began to advance Paul
Samuelson's idea of a public good. This is a good in which
additional consumers can consume the good without reducing
the consumption of any existing consumer. In other words,
once the good is produced, additional consumers can consume
all they want.
An example of that is a radio broadcast. Once the signal
goes out, anyone can listen to it without reducing anyone
else's ability to listen. This feature supposedly makes the
good unlikely to be efficiently provided through market
means. This is as opposed to soft drinks; if I drink one,
there's one less to drink.
AEN: Ironically, though, the market produces radio
broadcasts.
HOLCOMBE: Yes, and, in fact, most public goods, as
defined by economic theory, you can think of are provided in
the market. The best example I can think of is computer
software. Once the code is written, additional users can
take advantage of it at no cost to the existing user. It's
simply a matter of making a copy.
No matter how many are made, it doesn't reduce the
consumption of any other consumer. There can be ten or a
million copies at no cost to the existing users. Issues of
copyright aside, then, software has the characteristics of a
public good, but look how well the market produces it. In
fact, the government thinks the market produces it too well:
witness the campaign against Microsoft.
AEN: It raises the question of how well government
produces public goods.
HOLCOMBE: I've actually done some research on
this. Logically, if anything seems to fit the description of
a public good, it is passing legislation. I'm not talking
about enforcing it. I'm just speaking of the legislative
process itself: the legislature gets together and passes
laws.
Following public goods theory, you might think the size
of the jurisdiction wouldn't matter for the cost. As with
software, what difference does it make for your costs
whether these laws are for a thousand people or a million or
ten million people? But it turns out to make a huge
difference. A colleague and I looked at the costs of
legislatures across the 50 states and adjusted for
legislative output. There is a very close correlation
between the number of people in a state and the cost of
operating its legislature.
If you double the size of population, you nearly double
the cost of legislation. Legislation is like hamburgers at a
picnic: if you've got twice as many people, you've got to
cook twice as many burgers. Additional users don't use the
good for free. So legislation -which most plausibly looks
like a public good -actually fails the Samuelsonian test.
AEN: What about other supposed public goods?
HOLCOMBE: Right now, I'm doing a study of national
defense, and in my initial results, there appears to be a
one-to-one correspondence between the number of people in a
country and defense spending. The more people the government
is defending, the more it spends in doing so. So, defense
turns out to fail the Samuelsonian definition as well. And,
really, that's not too surprising. What's surprising is that
the theory of public goods has survived despite its lack of
theoretical or empirical merit.
AEN: Why has idea survived?
HOLCOMBE: Why does most government propaganda
survive? The people who have promoted public goods theory as
a justification for government intervention are researchers
with a vested interest in supporting the activities of
government, either because they work in government schools
and universities or heavily subsidized private ones.
If you want to get a more compliant population, you can
beat them into submission. But it would be easier and better
to convince them that your way of thinking is right. That's
the role of public education. Public educators even admit
this. They say the main role of public schools is to
socialize children, that is, propagandize them.
Public-sector institutions have an incentive to look for
and support theories that back public-sector spending.
Economists, like anyone else, have an incentive to support
institutions that support them. That is why government-
supported research produces theoretical developments biased
toward government intervention.
AEN: Yet Samuelson's rationale for big government
hasn't exactly become common wisdom.
HOLCOMBE: One of my pet peeves is how economists
use terms in two ways. We define terms in a technical way to
use among ourselves -and Samuelsonian public goods theory is
a good example. It means: "the marginal cost of an
additional consumer consuming the good is zero." Then we
have the man-on-the-street definition of the same thing:
"things that are produced by government." But it turns out
that the two terms are completely different. Yet in policy
pronouncements, economists gloss over the difference in
order to justify government intervention.
AEN: Is there an optimal size of government?
HOLCOMBE: I'm currently doing some work with James
Gwartney and James Lawson on the effect of the size of
government on economic growth. This is a pure empirical
study. We are trying to discover what difference the size of
the public sector makes on the rate of economic growth.
We looked at time-series data in particular countries
like the U.S., at a cross-sectional data set of more than 20
OECD countries, and a larger data set from 60 countries
around the world (none of them from the present or former
centrally planned economies). No matter how you look at it,
there is a very strong and systematic relationship between
economic growth and the size of government. For all the data
we have, the smaller the public sector, the higher the rate
of growth.
We had no observations of countries with public sectors
smaller than 15 percent of GDP. Empirically, we can't know
too much about how much growth very small government would
permit. But in the United States today, government
expenditures at all levels are 35 percent of GDP. We could
cut that by half and vastly expand our growth. We should
keep going until we run out of spending we don't need. I
like the founders' view of government, that it should be as
small as possible.
AEN: It's a big question, but how did we get from
the founders' view to the current view of government?
HOLCOMBE: I've been working on a book for some
years tentatively titled, From Liberty to Democracy: The
Transformation of American Government. So you can guess
my answer from the title. When the founders created this
country, the underlying philosophy of American government
was liberty. What the founders meant by liberty was freedom
from government oppression. Their view was that liberty's
enemy is government. So they wanted a government that would
only protect rights and liberties. That was the point of the
Constitution.
But today, most people think the underlying philosophy of
government is democracy. How do we decide what public policy
should be? We find out what the majority wants. This idea is
completely antithetical to the founders' view. By degrees,
we became increasingly democratic and let this notion of
liberty fall by the wayside. There is a relationship between
the rise of democracy and the decline of liberty. Democracy,
as we understand it today, is antithetical to liberty.
AEN: But didn't the founders want rule by the
people?
HOLCOMBE: They wanted popular government, but not
for the people to determine public policy. Initially, the
one area of government in which people had a direct role was
the House of Representatives, though there was no guaranteed
right to vote. But the Senate was chosen by the state
legislatures, until the 17th amendment in 1914.
The president was chosen by the electoral college. The
electors were chosen by the states. The Constitution never
specified how the states picked their electors. Originally,
it was most common for them to be chosen by their state
legislatures.
If a majority of the electors voted for one person, he
would be president. Otherwise the decision would go to the
House. The founders figured the electors would vote for
somebody from their state. Because of that, nobody would get
a majority. Therefore the House would choose the president.
So the electoral college was to be a kind of search
committee. They would be knowledgeable people, know the
strengths and weaknesses of the possible candidates, and the
electors would forward a slate of candidates to the House.
As it happened, it didn't work out that way. A majority of
electors usually agreed on one candidate. And by the 1820s,
most states had already gone to popular election of
electors. By 1828, political parties were out campaigning
for presidents.
AEN: And Andrew Jackson was the main player.
HOLCOMBE: Andrew Jackson was an interesting
character. On the one hand, he was committed to Jeffersonian
ideals of limited government. He ran for president because
he thought presidents after Jefferson had unjustly expanded
the scope of government. He wanted a return to the founders'
ideals.
I'm sympathetic with that, but he also thought the best
way to control the political elite in the country was
through more democratic representation. As soon as elected
officials are made more accountable to the public, they also
have to be looking for ways to win elections. You end up
with public policy as a popular opinion poll instead of
commitment to a principle like liberty. Unwittingly, then,
Jackson became part of a longer-term problem.
AEN: Why, when you ask the public what it wants,
is liberty not the answer?
HOLCOMBE: We tend to take liberty for granted. And
these days, there's also a big status-quo bias. Despite the
complaints about government's intrusions into our lives,
people think we have it pretty good and have a hard time
imagining huge changes away from the status quo.
I was discussing the finance of highways in my economics
class. I asked about the toll that finances the Florida
turnpike. My students all said it makes sense. Then I asked
about the interstate highways and whether they should be
similarly financed. Well, they didn't like that idea. They
wanted free access to one but not the other. My
interpretation is that they have a status-quo bias.
When most people are getting along pretty comfortably,
it's hard to convince them that we have strayed far from the
principles that produced this level of comfort and
prosperity. But prosperity is increasingly threatened as we
move farther from the principles that produced it.
It's my job as an economist to explain how small changes
in policy can have huge effects, and in ways that are not
always immediately predictable, unless you are thinking
carefully.
AEN: What attracted you to economics in the first
place?
HOLCOMBE: It offers a simple, palatable
theoretical structure. And with theory, so much of the
workings of the world are revealed to you. Immediately I
loved the power of pure theory. The bottom line of this
theory is that the market works. The hard part is the
supposed exceptions to the market rule, and that's what
attracted me to public finance.
AEN: As a student, did you have defined views on
these matters?
HOLCOMBE: Unlike a lot of people who say they were
socialists or some such when they were young, I already
leaned toward pro-market views. All the intellectuals I knew
were interventionists. Sometimes, I felt like an anti-
intellectual because I couldn't agree with the
interventionist view. So the discovery of the Austrian
School was a revelation. First it was Hayek, and then
Rothbard, and then Mises, and finally, I felt I had an
intellectual foundation for what already seemed intuitively
plausible.
AEN: And you continue to work within this
framework.
HOLCOMBE: Yesterday, at this Austrian Scholars
Conference, I delivered a paper on entrepreneurship,
building on some ideas of Austrian economist Israel Kirzner.
I asked the question: what is the origin of entrepreneurial
opportunities? You might think that if an entrepreneur
discovers a profit opportunity and uses it, that
entrepreneurial opportunity is used up. Where do new ones
come from? My answer is that they come from entrepreneurship
itself.
A good example is computers. Someone had a great idea for
an infrared mouse on computers. But first someone had come
up with a graphical operating system, which would not have
been possible if someone had not come up with the good idea
of a personal computer, which previously required the idea
of the microprocessor, and so on. I argue in a forthcoming
issue of The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics
that this is the primary source of economic growth.
AEN: How does this view compare with mainstream
growth theory?
HOLCOMBE: In the mainstream view, growth is
created by combining inputs. The natural way to bring about
growth, then, is to increase inputs. The production function
takes it from there. My paper suggests that while inputs are
crucial, entrepreneurship is more important.
If you look at the old Soviet Union, they used the
production function approach to growth. They invested in
capital, they tried to push the technological frontiers, and
they had an educated population. They were concentrating on
the inputs -exactly according to mainstream theory -but
neglecting the environment in which growth takes place. If
you create the environment, the inputs take care of
themselves. Yet even today, the IMF and the World Bank use
mainstream growth theory that points to a central-planning
model.
AEN:You've also written a book on economic method.
HOLCOMBE: When I began that project, a friend
advised me against "falling into the black hole of
methodology." I can see his point. My chapter on "Theories
of Utility and Entrepreneurship" was the initial one,
written just as a paper. It became a 40-page paper, then an
80-page chapter, then I started to divide it into pieces.
The only way I could extract myself from the black hole of
methodology was to consolidate it into a whole book and send
it off to a publisher.
Economists typically go about their discipline the way
everyone else does, and they don't often think about the
methodology they follow or whether it makes sense. It was a
learning experience for me to explore how economists go
about the search for truth, and to sort out what we as
economists actually know about the world, versus conjectures
about what may be true, versus outright propaganda. Too
often economists construct elegant theories that have no
connection to the real world.
AEN: And what did you conclude?
AEN: I end up being critical of methodological
positivism, in which empirical evidence is used as a
demonstration of the proof of theories. There's a good case
for looking at empirical data and looking for regularities
to see how the real world works. Econometrics is a lot like
looking out the window: you want to make sense of what you
see. If you are looking at a page of thousands of numbers,
it is reasonable to ask yourself if there are any regular
relationships between them.
But the notion that you are testing a theory in doing this
is outright wrong. You really can't test theories in any
formal, empirical sense.
AEN: This was Mises's fundamental methodological
claim.
HOLCOMBE: I completely agree with him. Most
theories we want to test we came up with by looking at the
data anyway. That's especially true in macroeconomics, in
which there is only one set of data. Everybody knows it.
It's not like pulling balls out of an urn, a statistics game
in which you try to estimate the color composition of the
urn of balls based on sample drawings. In economics, you are
not doing that because everybody already knows the data.
You've already looked at the urn.
Also, economists don't really test theories; any
empirical test must simultaneously test both the theory and
the assumptions necessary to connect the abstract theory
with real-world data. Whenever the empirical test turns out
to contradict the theory, we don't reject the theory. We
reject the supporting assumptions and go back to look for
more data. We assume our test was wrong, change the
specifications of the model, and run some more regressions
until the data turns out to back the theory we had to begin
with. Then we say: Aha! The data confirms the theory!
So economists don't really test theories and they never
reject theories. I challenge economists in general: if we
really think we are testing theories, show me a theory that
has been rejected on the basis of an empirical test. There
are not many. Nevertheless, the data are still useful for
looking at regularities.
AEN: Also in your methodology book, you
highlighted the Austrian notion of rationality.
HOLCOMBE: In the Austrian view, all behavior is
rational, from the point of view of the individual. A person
acts, ex ante, to improve his position. That means there is
no behavior that is not intended to be utility-enhancing,
but it also means there is nothing to allow for prediction.
Austrians agree that demand curves are downward sloping, for
example, but this follows not from data but from logic.
The neoclassical view assumes that people are wealth
maximizing, income maximizing, or profit maximizing. These
assumptions give you "testable" hypotheses. That is where
the misuse begins. Social scientists are always blasting
economists for believing only in "economic man." We respond
by saying, "actually our view is much broader." Yet the
neoclassical theory of public goods and externalities is
built entirely on this same caricature. Well-known
economists base their public-policy recommendations on it.
Despite so many examples where people act charitably
toward others and go out of their way to respect the rights
of others, so much government coercion is justified based on
the idea that we must prevent people from having any
opportunity to be shirkers or free riders.
AEN: Do you consider yourself an adherent of the
Austrian School proper?
HOLCOMBE: I don't know exactly where I fit in the
taxonomy of the Austrian School -which, as this Scholars
Conference demonstrates, is quite diverse. I've learned a
great deal from Austrian writers, and I am a strong
supporter. But there are scholars, many of them here, who
have dedicated their academic careers to pushing the
frontiers of the school. I have worked in different areas. I
am enthusiastic about promoting the ideas of Austrian
economics, both to my students and to the academic
mainstream. The good news is that economists in the academic
mainstream are increasingly interested in discovering what
Austrian economics has to offer.