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Governments, especially including the U.S.
government, seem to be congenitally
incapable of keeping their mitts off any part of the economy.
Government, aided and abetted by
its host of apologists among intellectuals and policy wonks, likes to
regard itself as a deus ex
machina (a "god out of the machine") that surveys its
subjects with Olympian benevolence and
omniscience, and then repeatedly descends to earth to fix up the
numerous "market
failures" that mere people, in their ignorance, persist in committing.
The fact that history is a black record of
continual gross failure by this "god," and that
economic theory explains why it must be so, makes no impression on
official political discourse.
Every Nation-State, for example, is continually
tempted to intervene to fix its exchange
rates, the rates of its fiat paper money in terms of the scores of
other moneys issued by all the
other governments in the world.
Governments don't know, and don't want to know,
that the only successful fixing of
exchange rates occurred, not coincidentally, in the era of the gold
standard. In that era, money
was a market commodity, produced on the market rather than manufactured
ad lib. by a
government or a central bank. Fixed exchange rates worked because these
national money
units--the dollar, the pound, the lira, the mark, etc.--were not
independent things or entities.
Rather each was defined as a certain weight of gold.
Like all definitions such as the yard, the ton,
etc., the point of the definition was that,
once set, it was fixed forever. Thus, for example, if, as was roughly
the case in the nineteenth
century, "the dollar" was defined as 1/20 of a gold ounce, "the pound"
as 1/4 of a gold ounce,
and "the French franc" as 1/100 of a gold ounce, the "exchange rates"
were simply proportional
gold weights of the various currency units, so that the pound would
automatically be worth $5,
the franc would automatically be worth 20 cents, etc.
The United States dropped the gold standard in
1933, with the last international vestiges
discarded in 1971. After the whole world followed, each national
currency became a separate and
independent entity, or good, from all the others. Therefore a "market"
developed immediately
among them, as a market will always develop among different tradable
goods.
If these exchange markets are left alone by
governments, then exchange rates will
fluctuate freely. They will fluctuate in accordance with the supplies
and demands for each
currency in terms of the others, and the day-to-day rates will reflect
supply and demand
conditions and, as in the case of all other goods, "clear the market" so
as to equate
supply and demand, and therefore assure that there will be no shortages
or unsold surpluses of
any of the moneys.
Fluctuating fiat moneys, as the world has
discovered once again, since 1971, are
unsatisfactory. They cripple the advantages of international money and
virtually return the world
to barter. They fail to provide the check against inflation by
governments and central banks once
supplied by the stern necessity of redeeming their monetary issues in
gold.
What the world has failed to grasp is that there is
one thing much worse than fluctuating
fiat moneys: and that is fiat money where governments try to fix the
exchange rates. For, as in the
case of any price control, governments will invariably fix their rates
either above or below the
free market rate. Whichever route they take, government fixing will
create undesirable
consequences, will cause unnecessary monetary crises, and, in the long
run, cannot be sustained
and will end up in ignominious failure.
One crucial point is that government fixing of
exchange rates will inevitably set
"Gresham's Law" to work: that is, the money artificially undervalued by
the government (set at a
price too low by the government) will tend to disappear from the market
("a shortage"), while
money overvalued by government (price set too high) will tend to pour
into circulation and
constitute a "surplus."
The Clinton Administration, which seems to have a
homing instinct for economic fallacy,
has been as bumbling and inconsistent in monetary policy as in all
other areas. Thus, until
recently, the administration, absurdly worried about a seemingly grave
(but actually non-existent)
balance of payments "deficit," has tried to push down the exchange rate
of the dollar in order to
stimulate exports and restrict imports.
There is no way, however, that government can ever
find and set some sort of "ideal"
exchange rate. A cheaper dollar encourages exports all right, but the
administration eventually
came to realize that there is an inevitable down side: namely, that
import prices of course are
higher, which removes competition that will keep domestic prices down.
Instead of learning the lesson that there is no
ideal exchange rate apart from determination
by the free market, the Clinton Administration, as is its wont,
reversed itself abruptly, and
orchestrated a
multi-billion campaign by the Fed and other major central banks to prop
up the sinking dollar, as against the German mark and the Japanese yen.
The dollar rate rose
slightly, and the media congratulated Clinton for propping up the
dollar.
Overlooked in the hosannahs are several intractable
problems. First, billions of taxpayers
money, here and abroad, are being devoted to distorting market exchange
rates. Second, since the
exchange rate is being coercively propped up, such "successes" cannot
be repeated for long. How
long before the Fed runs out of marks and yen with which to keep up the
dollar? How long
before Germany, Japan, and other countries tire of inflating their
currencies in order to keep the
dollar artificially high?
If the Clinton Administration persists, even in the
face of these consequences, in trying to
hold the dollar artificially high, it will have to meet the developing
mark and yen "shortages" by
imposing exchange controls and mark-and-yen-rationing on American
citizens.
In the meantime, one of the first bitter fruits of
Nafta has already appeared. Like all other
modern "free trade" agreements, Nafta serves as a back-channel to
international currency
regulation and fixed exchange rates. One of the unheralded aspects of
Nafta was joint
government action in propping up each others' exchange rates. In
practice, this means artificial
overvaluation of the Mexican peso, which has been dropping sharply on
the market, in response
to Mexican inflation and political instability.
Thus, Nafta originally set up a "temporary" $6
billion credit pool to aid mutual
overvaluation of exchange rates. With the peso slipping badly, falling
6% against the dollar since
January, the Nafta governments, in late April, made the credit pool
permanent, and raised it to
$8.8 billion. Moreover, the three Nafta countries created a new North
American Financial Group,
consisting of the respective finance ministers and central bank
chairman, to "oversee economic
and financial issues affecting the North American partners."
Robert D. Hormats, vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs
International, hailed the new
arrangement as "a logical progression from trade and investment
cooperation between the three
countries to greater monetary and fiscal cooperation." Well, that's one
way to look at it. Another
way is to point out that this is one more step of the U.S. government
toward arrangements that
will distort exchange
rates, create monetary crises and currency shortages, and waste
taxpayers money and economic resources.
Worst of all, the U.S. is marching inexorably
toward economic regulation and planning
by regional, and even world, governmental bureaucracies, out of control
and accountable to no
one, to none of the subject peoples anywhere on the globe.
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