Financial MarketsGlobal EconomyMoney and Banks
97% of consensus economists didn’t see the last recession the quarter before it started. Even worse, 77% didn’t see a recession when it was already happening!
The FedFinancial MarketsGlobal Economy
We have been hearing from central banks that we were living in a synchronized growth territory. Well, it wasn’t the case.
Financial MarketsU.S. EconomyMoney and Banking
Lehman was a prime example of mainstream consensus analysis of risk and economic opportunity. We "solved" it with more of the same.
The FedGlobal EconomyBusiness Cycles
Emerging economies should not bet on the Fed to bail them out, but begin to solve their serious imbalances without expecting monetary miracles.
Global EconomyMoney and BanksMoney and Banking
The Turkish lira collapse should have surprised no one. Yet, in this bubble-justifying market, it did.
Booms and BustsLabor and WagesBusiness Cycles
Here are the fateful words that set the stage for years of high unemployment: “We believe in the principle of high wages.”
Global EconomyProtectionism and Free TradeInterventionism
Trump has exposed the hypocrisy of the "free trade" advocates in China and Europe. But by raising tariffs, Trump and other world leaders are inviting disaster.
Money and BanksMoney and Banking
Even with falling interest rates and high liquidity, there have been spectacular bankruptcies, so imagine what can happen when rates rise.