Money and BanksMoney and Banking
The central bank can try to manipulate the interest rate to whatever level it desires. However, it cannot exercise control over the underlying interest rates as dictated by people’s time preferences.
Philosophy and Methodology
The experience with which the sciences of human action have to deal is always an experience of complex phenomena. No laboratory experiments can be performed with regard to human action.
Central banks contend they can avoid booms and busts by increasing the money supply the "correct" amount. They are bound to fail.
Rather than increase efficiency and profitability, corporate managers look for easy ways to increase their salaries through leveraged buyouts. And central banks have a key role in making this easier and more common.
Expansionary monetary policy causes economic recessions. It doesn't cure them.
The real problem was the money supply inflation that happened during the boom phase. Combating deflation in the bust phase only superficially treats a symptom of the boom-bust cycle.
All the sophisticated quantitative methods by themselves can't help us understand the cause-and-effect of what's behind the boom-and-bust cycle.
If a large group of people express an opinion regarding future economic conditions, it does not make it more accurate than the view expressed by any particular individual.