Interview with Hiroyuki Okon
Interview with Hiroyuki Okon
The Austrian Economics Newsletter
|
Winter 1997
Volume 17, Number 4
Austrian Economics in Japan
An Interview with Hiroyuki Okon, Wakayama University
Hiroyuki Okon is associate professor of economics at Wakayama University,
where
he teaches undergraduate micro and graduate history of economic thought, and is an adjunct
scholar of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. His primary research area is the Austrian School, on
which he has written nine published papers, in Japanese and English, that have appeared in
Keizai
Riron (The Wakayama Economics Review), Osaka Shindai Ronshu, and The Keizai
Seminar. His
specialties are the economics calculation debate, Hayek's theory of social evolution, and the
history
of economic thought in Japan. He has twice attended the Austrian Scholars Conference, where
he
spoke with editors of The Austrian Economics Newsletter.
AEN: What is it like to be an Austrian economist in Japan?
OKON: I suppose Austrians have always felt themselves a breed apart.
The Japanese economics
profession is just as dominated by neoclassical and statist thinking as anywhere else in the world.
So my colleagues think I am radical and a little strange.
But another way to look at it is to see yourself on the cutting edge. I have some students who
see
it that way. Also, Austrian economics provides the tools to explain phenomena taking place in
Japan today, especially in the financial markets, that others do not have ready explanations for,
like the recent financial debacle.
AEN: First let's talk about the paper you presented at the Austrian
Scholars Conference. Tell us
about Katsuichi Yamamoto, who seems somewhat like Mises's Japanese counterpart.
OKON: I was so pleased to see Yamamoto's name listed in the Mises
Institute's time line in the
Austrian Family Album. My dream is that Austrians all over the world would come
to know his
name and his contributions to economics. He was born in 1896, so he was younger than Mises
and older than Hayek. He died in 1987 at the age of 91. He published 30 books and more than
100 papers, essays, and notes. Soon I'll have the opportunity to visit his archive in the National
Library of Japan in Tokyo. It's very far from Wakayama, so it's a rare opportunity for me.
AEN: Are you now writing his biography?
OKON: Yes, but it is a long-term project. In the course of my research, I
hope to arrange for the
publication of Yamamoto's most important work. This will be a key to promoting Austrian
economics in Japan. My first article on Yamamoto appears in the inaugural issue of the
economics journal of Wakayama University.
AEN: Let's begin with Yamamoto's intellectual influences.
OKON: He grew up at the turn of the century in severe poverty. In 1910,
when he was 14 years
old, he witnessed a series of dramatic political events. The Japanese government accused some
socialist and anarchist writers, most famously Syuusui Kotoku, of plotting the death of the
Emperor Meiji. Twelve people were put to death. Two of them were from Yamamoto's village.
This was the first time he heard names such as Peter Kropotokin and Karl Marx.
When he began his serious study of economics in 1920, he was first attracted to the ideas of
Hajime Kawakami, a professor at Kyoto Imperial University and author of Binbo
Monogatari, or
A Study of Poverty, first published in installments in the newspapers from
September to
December of 1916. This series established Kawakami as one of Japan's leading
Marxian
thinkers.
Yamamoto went to Kyoto solely for the purpose of studying with Kawakami. So when he
finished his studies, and began teaching at the Wakayama College of Commerce, he was a
Marxist. He went about enlightening the bourgeoisie and the working class about the
oppressiveness of capitalism. However, as he later recalled, he had felt some contradiction in
Marx's theory from the beginning.
AEN: How did he make the transition?
OKON: Through the writings of Physiocrat journalist Guillaume Francois
Le Trosne and
economist A.R.J. Turgot, whom Murray Rothbard regards as a direct forerunner to the modern
Austrian School. Yamamoto discovered these writers during studies he undertook in France from
1925 to 1927. Yamamoto was fluent in French.
When he came back to Wakayama, he began teaching the subjective theory of value to his
classes. The next year he published two very important papers: "Turgot's Theory of Value"
(Naigai Kenkyu 1:2) and "Theories of Value in Physiocracy"
(Keizai Ronso 26:3). These were his
first repudiations of Marxian economics. Then he topped them off with a direct hit on
Kawakami's theories in the very next issue of Naigai Kenkyu.
Then in 1930, his fullest treatment appeared: On Marxism: A Critical Study
(Kyoto: Shiso-Kenkyuukai). This book sold tens of thousands of copies. He
wrote it before he had read Mises
and Hayek--that would come later--but the book is still right on the mark. He exposed the
theoretical weaknesses and inconsistencies in Marxian historical materialism and surplus value
theory. He said communism couldn't work because no one is clever enough to manage it under
collective ownership--an argument similar to Hayek's.
AEN: When did he finally make contact with the modern Austrian
School?
OKON: Actually, he follows Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk's argument
fairly closely in this 1930
book. He used it to attack the Marxian idea of exploitation. But his knowledge of Mises must
have come about in 1931, when he went to Germany and the Soviet Union to observe the
realities of the planned economy. He was curious how the problem of calculating profit and loss
would be handled by these socialist systems. The result was his second book, Economic
Calculation: The Fundamental Problem of Planned Economies (1932). In it he examines
the
views of Neurath, Tschajanoff, Varga, Strumilin, Leichter, Kautsky, Heimann, Halm, and, at last,
Mises.
AEN: What about Hayek?
OKON: It's a curious fact that he doesn't mention Hayek or raise
knowledge-problem types of
arguments at all. Most likely it was too early in the debate. Instead, his style of argument is
entirely Misesian. After presenting all of Mises's views, he writes: "I have nothing to add to
Mises's argument. I must confess he is totally right."
AEN: That would make this a very early account of the socialist
calculation debate in the history
of thought.
OKON: Since Hayek's edited volume didn't appear until 1935, and Trygve
Hoff's book didn't
appear until 1938, I think we can say that Yamamoto's book was the first in the world to
systematically analyze the socialist calculation debate.
Yamamoto then went to teach the mostly Marxist students at the Kokumin Seishin Bunka
Kenkyusyo (The Institute for Japanese Spirit and Culture), where he tried to disabuse them of
their fallacies from 1932 until the war. This was a period when Marxism was very popular
among academics. Marx's Das Kapital became a best-seller, and the leading
Marxians were
people like Yoshitaro Omori, Itsuro Sakisaka, and Moritaro Yamamada.
AEN: Yamamoto could speak German as well?
OKON: Yes. When he went to Russia, there were no Japanese interpreters
available. So he took
a Russian-speaking German translator with him. So from Russian to German to Japanese,
Japanese audiences got a glimpse of life under Soviet socialism. Also, he spoke English, and
during these years testified before the U.S. Congress.
AEN: Just so we are clear, thanks to Yamamoto's 1932 book, Japanese
economists knew about
the socialist calculation debate before English-speaking economists?
OKON: Three years before. Yes.
AEN: What do you find unique about Yamamoto's approach to the
subject?
OKON: Well, he was the only one of the Austrians who actually traveled
to the Soviet Union in
the thirties to observe what was taking place, and to evaluate it in terms of Austrian theory. He
wrote three key articles: "The Russian Farmer Under Communism" (1934), "A Trial of the
Planned Economy in Russia" (1936), and "Prices in a Socialist State" (1938).
AEN: What about on the theoretical front?
OKON: He presented Mises's and others' views very clearly. And he also
made what I think is
an impressive and perhaps original criticism of socialist Eduard Heimann's argument on the
calculation problem. Heimann had argued that it was possible to abolish private property in the
means of production and still retain the ability to calculate factor prices, so long as markets for
consumer goods are retained. The values could simply be imputed backwards from consumers to
producers, since values are connected as if by an "elastic string."
But Yamamoto pointed out that in order to have true economic calculation, profits and losses
must be calculated by comparing prices and costs. But these prices and costs must be formed
independently of each other in their respective markets or otherwise they will not reflect real
conditions.
The mutual independence of all product markets and all production markets implies that
appraisement is necessary in all markets. Otherwise, economic calculation will not be rational.
Abolishing property and markets in factor goods is the equivalent of cutting the "elastic string"
and introducing chaos.
AEN: Did Yamamoto extend his analysis to the mixed economy?
OKON: Actually, this was one of his main accomplishments during this
period. He was a
relentless critic of keizai tosei (economic control) as practiced by the Japanese
government and
army in the 1930s. First came the cartelization of industries deemed important by the
government. Then came the controls on capital flight. Then came the nationalization of utilities.
Finally, by 1938, the "National Mobilization Law" was imposed. It gave the government
complete power to control all people and all resources. Japan finally had the wartime economy or
tousei-keizai. Even today, we see the effects of this tragic step, in the form of a huge
and hugely
powerful national police force.
All during this time, the government kept claiming that property was still in the hands of
private
owners. The government's role was merely in regulating production and distribution. But
Yamamoto correctly pointed out that private property was merely a disguise for market
socialism.
AEN: Did he ever come under fire for his views?
OKON: Certainly. But he never compromised his relentless arguments.
For example, on the
nationalization of electricity, he pointed out that the question of whether this or that facility
ought
to be built is not a technical question but an economic one, which can only be settled by market
exchange. He also pointed out that one intervention inevitably leads to more to correct the
distortions generated in the first round, a process that ends in the total state.
In 1941, a collection of these blistering writings appeared as A Criticism of the Planned
Economy. It is a great book. But just as soon as it was published, the authorities banned it
and
forced it out of print. So it was never circulated widely and, sadly, never came back into print.
AEN: And then after the war?
OKON: This is when tragedy struck. General MacArthur's occupation
forces put Japan under
martial law. They rounded up intellectuals suspected of having sympathies with the imperial
system. Yamamoto, even as an outspoken free-market economist, was targeted and accused of
being an imperial sympathizer. I can think of many things to say about him, but this is not among
them. It was the height of ironies. Nonetheless, Yamamoto was jailed by MacArthur for a
grueling two years.
During this time, he was forbidden from publishing anything, which accounts for the gap in
his
vita from 1942 to 1945. It seems tragedy had struck Austrians all over the world. At a time when
Mises was struggling to get a job in the U.S., after having been forced to flee his homeland,
Yamamoto was jailed by occupation forces in his own country.
After getting out of jail, Yamamoto immediately went back to work on his life's mission. He
worked to establish a Liberal Party of Japan, drafted a plan for post-war economic recovery, was
professor of economics at Chuo Gakuin University, and was elected to the Diet five times.
AEN: It appears that Yamamoto's life and intellectual interests parallel
that of Mises's and
Hayek's.
OKON: Yes, even on the question of Keynesianism. In 1955, the Liberal
Party and the
Democratic Party merged, and the new party made Keynesianism its official economic doctrine.
The government's Economic Council Board was renamed the Economic Planning Agency. It
produced a "Five Year Plan for Economic Self-Support," which not only gave the projected
figures for the next year but also spelled out needed measures to implement the plan.
Yamamoto criticized the plan by pointing out that the government cannot determine the
correct
prices for countless goods and services. It can't know all the people's demands. It can't forecast
people's abilities and available resources. It can't anticipate all available technologies and it can't
account for potential natural disasters. He said the only institution that can do these and properly
respond to unexpected changes is the free market. Also, during this period, he wrote a book in
tribute to Ludwig Erhard, the German free-market reformer.
AEN: And the welfare state?
OKON: The Japanese welfare state began about this same time, in 1955.
The new party imposed
a series of programs, like unemployment insurance, social security, a guaranteed national
income. In 1957, the Kishi cabinet pushed the slogan, "The Abolition of Poverty (By
Government Activity)."
Welfare systems are never stable, especially not social security. The revenues are used to
fund
the present generation, so it's unclear whether my generation will receive anything from the
program. The government has tried to solve this situation through an ever-rising tax rate. But
clearly that can't work forever.
All this was predicted by Yama- moto in his book A Warning About Social Security:
Its Limit in
a Free Society, which appeared in 1961. Later came his even more controversial
book Welfare
and the Ruin of the Country (1975). Here he argued against the
idea of dependency on
government, on the grounds that it is contrary to true social cooperation. You will be pleased to
know this book was dedicated to Mises, Hayek, and Roepke, who, Yamamoto says, most
strongly influenced his thought.
AEN: What was Yamamoto's last book about?
OKON: It was a collection of articles published in 1980 under the title
The Struggle Against
Socialism. In one particularly important chapter, he deals with how markets accommodate
drastic
and shocking change much better than government can. In "severe trials of reality," like natural
disasters and oil shocks, firms and families adapt themselves to changes in accord with their own
needs, while government intervention can only obstruct the attempt to deal with these trials.
AEN: Your personal website (http:// emily.eco.wakayama-u.ac.jp/~okon/)
contains some
material on Yamamoto and the Austrian School generally.
OKON: The bulk of it is an attempt at a complete bibliography covering
the socialist calculation
debate, year by year, from 1920 to the present, along with several papers, and essays in Japanese
and English. In Japanese, I've drawn attention to all the major Austrian thinkers. As the use of
the web grows, I can expand knowledge of the Austrian School within Japanese academic
circles.
We've got lots of work to do, however.
AEN: The last entry in the bibliography is from the New Left
Review, an article that appeared in
1997.
OKON: This is an interesting piece by socialists Fikret Adaman and Pat
Devine. They
summarize the Austrian case against socialism into three points. First, socialist economies can't
calculate. Second, they don't provide incentives to produce. And third, they lack a means of
discovery.
These authors admit the Austrians are right on these points. They go on to say that socialists
have
only solved the first two problems, which of course, they haven't. They then assert that socialists
have yet to respond to the last problem, the discovery problem. So they conclude that they need
an Austrian socialist model that incorporates a socialist solution to the discovery problem.
Of course, that's absurd. There is no socialist means of economic discovery, any more than
there
is a socialist means of economic calculation. It's curious how they assume that socialism is right,
true, and cannot be refuted. The only task is to continually construct and reconstruct a theory
around this assertion.
Like most socialists, these authors believe socialism to be superior to markets because
socialism
is supposedly just, and brings about equality and fairness. Austrians need to do more work in this
area. I think the best way to understand and refute these arguments is the approach Mises uses in
his Anti-Capitalistic Mentality.
AEN: In the balance, which Austrian argument against the economics of
socialism is the most
effective?
OKON: My answer must necessarily touch on the continuing debate
between Misesians and
Hayekians. I think Misesian Joseph Salerno is correct in arguing that the calculation argument is
ultimately more important than the knowledge argument.
Look at the history of the Soviet Union. The calculation problem was the overwhelmingly
important one for making socialism work. Quite simply, the planners literally had no idea what
to
tell people to do. They had no way to calculate profit and loss, so instead invented a huge variety
of non-market forms of calculation. But these alternative methods had nothing to do with reality.
Also, Salerno's argument is persuasive because he is approaching the very core of Mises's
argument. Hayek's argument about the transmission of knowledge in society comes across as
ambiguous and fuzzy in comparison. It allows some room for socialists to make yet another
counter-argument, but the MisesSalerno argument is impossible to respond to.
AEN: Who is your favorite Austrian economist?
OKON: I like Mises best. But, still, it's hard to choose. When Murray N.
Rothbard died, I wrote
an obituary for him in Japanese, calling him "pure, strict, logical, calm, firm, comprehensive,
simple, clear, principled, fundamental, thoroughgoing, ardent, energetic, and indomitable." I
think all these words also apply to Katsuichi Yamamoto, the greatest Japanese Austrian and
libertarian.
AEN: And Hayek?
OKON: I have learned an enormous amount from him. Recently I've been
doing some work on
reinterpreting Hayek in light of trends in evolutionary economics. The phrase itself is very
slippery. As G.M. Hodgson has pointed out, it has been used to describe Veblenian-style
Institutionalists, Schumpeterians, Misesians, the classical economists, game theorists, and
complexity theorists.
For Hayek, I think it is fair to say his evolutionary economics simply described his focus on
economic change. But why is this a subject that consumed him so fully? It's essential to
understand the influence that Friedrich Wieser had on Hayek's view of equilibrium. From his
earliest years, he pursued his economic studies from this perspective. He was among the most
faithful of all general equilibrium theorists. In this respect he was far different from Mises, who
never saw equilibrium as a real-world construct.
But during the socialist calculation debate, Hayek discovered that equilibrium theory has its
shortcomings. He had difficulties answering the socialist claim--made from the perspective of
neoclassical economic theory--that coming up with market prices is as simple as solving
simultaneous equations.
AEN: So his later emphasis on social evolution was his out.
OKON: What Bruce Caldwell calls Hayek's "transformation" was a
consequence of his career-long and largely unconscious struggle to escape the equilibrium
framework. For example, he
came to attribute an almost almighty power to prices as the coordinators of all economic activity,
even to the neglect of human rationality, entrepreneurship, discovery, and the contributions of
firms and other organizations to the competitive process.
Why? Because he never could fully escape his equilibrium orientation. Hayek continued to
assume that all theoretical difficulties should and could be overcome by amending, redefining,
reinterpreting, or renaming the notion of equilibrium.
As his struggle progressed, he eventually latched on to the idea of spontaneous order. The
concept lacks a strict definition, but it allowed him to more easily move from economic
theorizing over to social philosophy. Yet even here he encountered problems.
I agree with Viktor Vanberg that there is a serious conflict within Hayek's idea of
spontaneous
order. On the one hand, we have the methodological individualism inherent in the idea of the
invisible hand. On the other we have Hayek's theory of group selection. These two positions are
not consistent. There may be a resolution in the idea of "tacit knowledge," but it is not clear
where this research program can lead us.
AEN: But Hayek is better known than Mises in Japan?
OKON: Of course, and in fact, the collected works of Hayek are already
published in Japanese.
The reason is not only related to his Nobel Prize. Hayek's works contain a somewhat ambivalent
attitude toward the state and government. They can be read and welcomed by a variety of
thinkers from left to right.
In some ways, the ambiguity of Hayek's works is in harmony with our culture and tradition.
We
Japanese often avoid making our opinions clear and strict. In contrast, Mises is always clear. He
doesn't allow for diverse interpretation. That may be considered too radical in Japan. Hayek was
invited to Japan several times, but, alas, Mises never was!
AEN: Is Public Choice theory well-known in Japan?
OKON: Buchanan and Tullock are well-known, of course, and their books
are translated into
Japanese. There are quite a few studies done of the political business cycle, for example. But
much of this is another excuse for number crunching, and I doubt it will lead to any fundamental
rethinking of economic theory, much less a rethinking of the role of government in society.
Nonetheless, it is a good thing for economists to examine bureaucrats as self-interested agents.
But it will take Austrian economics to push them further.
AEN: What about your own theoretical development?
OKON: My initial interest in the Austrian School came from being
exposed to the ideas of
Ludwig Lachmann and G.L.S. Shackle. The process went this way: When I was in graduate
school at Osaka City University, I became curious about the economics of socialism. My
professor, Yoshinonori Shiozawa, suggested I read Don Lavoie's book Rivalry and Central
Planning. I proceeded to write a lengthy paper on the general themes he laid out. It was
through
this book I found Lachmann, and my writings reflected interest in themes like process, evolution,
uncertainty, and the unknowability of the future.
At the same time, I was reading Mises, Hayek, and Kirzner. I began to see that Mises did not
have to resort to non-economic arguments to make the case for the economics of a liberal society.
To correct the errors of neoclassical and social economic thought, we don't need to abandon
theory; we need to take theory more seriously and secure it more firmly to human choice, as
Mises did.
AEN: Did you read Human Action?
OKON: Certainly. And I was also fortunate to have discovered the Mises
Institute during this
period. The Austrian Study Guide produced by the Institute opened up a whole new
world to me.
I applied to come to the Mises University. On the plane to the U.S. I read Murray Rothbard's
Essential von Mises. After that week, I was convinced, and my Austrian orientation
was secure. I
followed up by reading Man, Economy, and State. About three years ago, I found
out about the
life and work of Katsuichi Yamamoto from a colleague who is now a professor and is also
interested in Austrian economics. Yamamoto has provided me with a wonderful model of how to
proceed.
AEN: Do you do applied work as well?
OKON: I've done some work on the recent financial history in Japan. It
lends itself to a classic
Austrian exposition. In the 1980s, the Japanese economy experienced a huge boom in the price
of
land and stocks. It went through four phases. Phase one stretched from October 1982 to October
1987. Monetary relaxation came with the Plaza Accord in September 1985. The Nikkei soared
from 10,000 to 39,000 yen.
Phase two came with the collapse on Black Monday, which took the market down to 21,000.
It
recovered the next year. Another decline in 1990 marks the beginning of phase three, and finally
the bubble fully deflated by 1992, with the Nikkei falling to 14,309 yen--rock bottom. Neither it
nor the economy has recovered since. So much for the "Japanese miracle."
AEN: So the miracle was a mirage?
OKON: A paper mirage created by government. These ups and downs
were not natural market
phenomena. They were an artificial result induced by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of
Japan. The 1985 Plaza Accord was supposed to create a strong yen and weak dollar, and bring
currencies into line. The Bank of Japan reduced the discount rate step by step. It had been as low
as 2.5 percent in February 1987, and the volume of money and credit increased rapidly, pushing
up stocks and land prices.
The result was a casino economy, with speculation in land and stocks running wild. In 1989,
the
Bank of Japan finally boosted the rate to 3.25 percent. But contrary to Keynesian expectations,
the inflationary frenzy did not stop. So the Bank of Japan kept up its upward march, finally
increasing the discount rate to 6 percent. The artificially inflated economy burst, as it inevitably
would have no matter what the Bank and the Ministry of Finance had done.
Today, the cycle has started all over again, with the Bank of Japan driving down interest
rates in
an effort to restart the economy. The discount rate now stands at an incredible 0.5
percent, with
the central bank doing everything in its power to boost investment.
But business confidence remains very low, and banks already have too many bad loans on
their
books. The best way to end these cycles would be for the central bank and the government to
stop
attempting these countercyclical credit policies. They always backfire. I don't think the managers
understand Austrian business cycle theory well enough to know the cause and effect relationship
between loose money and sector-specific booms and busts.
AEN: What role did the Ministry of Finance play in this?
OKON: It was the power broker behind the Plaza Accord, of course. It
should also be blamed for
accepting the bad advice of then-Secretary of the Treasury James Baker to increase "investment
in infrastructure." All that did was put strains on the national budget.
But the full story of the Ministry of Finance's attempt to stop the boom hasn't been told. Most
real-estate loans came to be monopolized by the Jusen, non-bank banks established
by the major
city banks in the 1970s as subsidiary companies. The Jusen were founded to provide
housing
loans, but these loans proved so profitable that banks took them over. That left the Jusen
to
speculate in real estate. They then became the major players in the money game.
In 1990, the Ministry of Finance worried about the skyrocketing prices and ever-increasing
debt
load, and imposed the Soryo-Kisei or "total-volume restriction." It applied to all
financial
institutions, except one: those that were established by Agricultural Cooperatives. It takes no
guesswork to know where the money went after that point: straight to those associated with
Agricultural Cooperatives, directly into housing and real estate. The Soryo-Kisei had
an escape
hatch and ended up prolonging the inflationary boom.
AEN: What happened to the Jusen in the meantime?
OKON: The Jusen came crashing down, in a manner similar
to the S&L industry in the U. S.
The Japanese government decided to dispose of all furyo- saiken, or non-performing
loans, and
created a new institution to recover the loans, like the American RFC. But to make up the losses,
the Ministry of Finance forced mother banks to contribute over 3.5 trillion yen, banks which had
nothing to do with the Jusen to give up 1.7 trillion yen, and taxpayers to fork over
680 billion
yen.
Where is the fairness and justice in that? The Japanese government was taxing the public to
bail
out both debtors and bankrupt companies. What about responsibility, market discipline,
independence? The Japanese government doesn't know the meaning of these words.
AEN: Has the government learned a lesson?
OKON: Well, we can look at its report on the debacle from December
1995, which discusses
how the financial system should be reorganized. On the one hand, it promotes "market
mechanism and the principles of self-responsibility." On the other hand, it calls for "utmost
efforts to protect depositors and to maintain the stability of the financial system for the next five
years," along with a new deposit insurance system.
Here we have the classic interventionist contradiction: a mix of markets and intervention.
But in
practice you have to have one or the other or else risk another collision. I never expected much
from the celebrated "Big Bang" reform of Japan's financial institutions. If we could get the
Austrian School better known throughout Japan, people would begin to learn the right lessons
from these financial meltdowns.
AEN: What's behind the consumption tax mess?
OKON: Soon after this topsy-turvy ride in finance and real estate, the
government embarked on
another attempt to extract more revenue from taxpayers, in part to pay for growing welfare
payments. It increased the consumption tax from 3 percent to 5 percent. This was yet another
hammer blow to market exchange. And it sent the economy into yet another tailspin, just as you
would expect. Most economists predicted reduced consumption, but hardly anyone knew how
bad it would be.
Ironically, the tax will not likely raise more revenue, and it certainly won't lead to paying off
the
national debt. The structure of government spending is outpacing its revenues. The tax rate will
probably rise further in the future unless something is done. The system will continue to unwind.
AEN: Despite the growth in the Japanese welfare state, how do you
account for the higher rate of
saving in Japan over the U.S.?
OKON: Some economists attribute this to cultural differences. But I'm not
sure that's the whole
answer. In Japan, the ultimate sign of social and economic achievement is to own a home. With
land so scarce, this is quite difficult to do. Until the age of 40, then, most people are saving
money only for this purpose. Without this one factor, I doubt savings rates would be higher than
in other countries.
AEN: What kind of policy would you recommend?
OKON: Complete deregulation, lower taxes, and drastic spending cuts,
starting with
infrastructure, education, and social welfare. It's the usual mix of Austrian policy
recommendations that are no less effective and desirable because they are repeated so often. It's
the best, and really only, course out of our present woes.
AEN: Do you worry about U.S.Japan trade disputes?
OKON: It's always unfortunate when these occur, and I'm sure there is
plenty of blame to go
around. Both the U.S. and Japan practice protectionism in selected industries; neither
is in a
position to accuse each other of erecting unfair trade barriers. They still do, because hypocrisy is
a universal feature of government.
Trade bureaucrats would have us believe that all trade hinges on the balance of decisions
they
make and the disputes they resolve. For example, we hear about the conspicuous cases of U.S.
autos or the FujiKodak dispute. But we know about them only because the respective
trade
ministries are publicizing them. But trade disputes do not capture the reality or the real miracle of
commerce between the two nations.
The reality is that sectoral disputes comprise only a tiny percentage of overall trade between
our
countries, much less with the rest of the world. The vast majority of international trade is
peaceful and undisputed, and takes place outside the offices of the ministries of trade. The
miracle is the perfectly ordered system of mutually advantageous exchange that has grown up
without government interference. This is especially true in the financial sector, where market
traders comprise a powerful force independent of government control.
But we don't hear much about this because it doesn't appear in press releases that business
reporters use to write their stories. And it doesn't fit with the model that many political people
use to think about international trade. Their model is based on conflict, not cooperation.
AEN: Are there good textbooks in Japan?
OKON: They are passable, but not Austrian. The history of thought books
do not deal with
Austrian economics in any substantial way. I would like to assign Human Action as
a textbook.
There is a Japanese translation by Toshio Murata, but the students would never buy it. At 10,000
Yen, it is too expensive. But I do use the Mises Institute edition of business cycle essays with an
introduction by Roger Garrison. I like Garrison's graphical approach. It helps bring my
Keynesian students around to the Austrian perspective.
AEN: Does Austrian economics in Japan have a future?
OKON: We're working on it. The Austrians in Japan are geographically
diverse. Before e-mail,
it would have been difficult for us to connect apart from conferences. There are not enough of us
to hold the equivalent of an Austrian Scholars Conference here yet.
So right now, we have an e-mail study group that involves eight economists. One of them is
Tsutomu Hashimoto of Hokkaido University, who is presently translating O'Driscoll and Rizzo's
Economics of Time and Ignorance. In addition, we are making plans for a book on
Austrian
economics. So the number of people involved and the level of interest is growing.
AEN: Aside from scholarship, do you have any new campaigns?
OKON: The most recent issue to hit Japan is the question of currency
traders. Ever since the
collapse of the Malaysian currency, we've seen another wave of attacks on speculators. But I am
a big defender of people like George Soros. He is doing his best to keep currencies in line at their
appropriate market values. Of course he is criticized in Japan. It's a sad fact of history that people
tend to turn against markets in hard times, instead of toward them, as they should. But there is no
law of history that can't be changed.