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For a half-century, the Keynesians have harbored a
Dream. They have long dreamed of a
world without gold, a world rid of any restrictions upon their desire
to spend and spend, inflate
and inflate, elect and elect. They have achieved a world where
governments and Central Banks
are free to inflate without suffering the limits and restrictions of
the gold standard. But they still
chafe at the fact that, although national governments are free to
inflate and print money, they yet
find themselves limited by depreciation of their currency. If Italy,
for example, issues a great
many lira, the lira will depreciate in terms of other currencies, and
Italians will find the prices of
their imports and of foreign resources skyrocketing.
What the Keynesians have dreamed of, then, is a
world with one fiat currency, the issues
of that paper currency being generated and controlled by one World
Central Bank. What you call
the new currency unit doesn't really matter: Keynes called his proposed
unit at the Bretton
Woods Conference of 1944, the "bancor"; Harry Dexter White, the U.S.
Treasury negotiator at
that time, called his proposed money the "unita"; and the London Economist
has dubbed its
suggested new world money the "phoenix." Fiat money by any name smells
as sour.
Even though the United States and its Keynesian
advisers dominated the international
monetary scene at the end of World War II, they could not impose the
full Keynesian goal; the
jealousies and
conflicts of national sovereignty were too intense. So the Keynesians
reluctantly had to settle for the jerry-built dollar-gold international
standard at Bretton Woods,
with exchange rates flexibly fixed, and with no World Central Bank at
its head.
As determined men with a goal, the Keynesians did
not fail from not trying. They
launched the Special Drawing Right (SDR) as an attempt to replace gold
as an international
reserve money, but SDRs proved to be a failure. Prominent Keynesians
such as Edward M.
Bernstein of the International Monetary Fund and Robert Triffin of
Yale, launched well-known
Plans bearing their names, but these too were not adopted.
Ever since the Bretton Woods system, hailed for
nearly three decades as stable and
eternal, collapsed in 1971, the Keynesians have had to suffer the
indignity of floating exchange
rates. Ever since the accession of Keynesian James R. Baker as
Secretary of Treasury in 1985, the
United States has abandoned its brief commitment to a monetarist
hands-off the foreign
exchange market policy, and has tried to engineer a phase
transformation of the international
monetary system. First, fixed exchange rates would be obtained by
coordinated action of the
large Central Banks. This has largely been achieved, at first covertly
and then openly; the leading
Central Banks picked a target point or zone, for, say, the dollar, and
then by buying and selling
dollars, manipulated exchange rates to stay within that zone. Their
main difficulty has been
figuring out what target to pick, since, indeed, they have no wisdom in
rate-fixing beyond that of
the market. Indeed, the concept of a just exchange-rate for the dollar
is just as inane as the notion
of the "just price" for a particular good.
A tempting opportunity for mischief has been
offered the Keynesians by the coming of
the European Community in 1992. The Keynesians, led by now Secretary of
State James Baker,
have been pushing for a new currency unit for this United Europe, to be
issued by a
European-wide Central Bank. This would not only mean an international
economic government
for Europe, it would also mean that it would become relatively easy for
the post-1992 European
Central Bank to become coordinated with the Central Banks of the United
States and Japan, and
to segue without too much trouble to the long-cherished goal of the
World Central Bank and
world currency unit.
Inflationist European countries, such as Italy and
France, are eager for the coordinated
European-wide inflation that a regional Central Bank would bring about.
Hard-money countries
such as West Germany, however, are highly critical of inflationary
schemes. You would expect
Germany, therefore, to resist these Europeanist demands; so why don't
they? The problem is that,
ever since World War II, the United States has had enormous political
leverage upon West
Germany and the United States and its Keynesian foreign secretary Baker
have been pushing
hard for European monetary unity. Only Great Britain, happily, has been
throwing a
monkey-wrench into these Keynesian proceedings. Hard-money oriented,
and wary of
infringements on its sovereignty--and also influenced by Monetarist
adviser Sir Alan
Wakers--Britain might just succeed in blocking the European Central
Bank indefinitely.
At best, the Keynesian Dream is a long shot. It is
always possible that, not only British
opposition, but also the ordinary and numerous frictions between
sovereign nations will insure
that the Dream will never be achieved. It would be heartening, however,
if principled opposition
to the Dream could also be mounted. For what the Keynesians want is no
less than an
internationally coordinated and controlled world-wide, paper-money
inflation, a fine-tuned
inflation that would proceed unchecked upon its merry way until,
whoops!, it landed the entire
world smack into the middle of the untold horrors of global runaway
hyperinflation.
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